Ammanford AFC v Haverfordwest County AFC prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ammanford AFCDrawHaverfordwest County AFC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Haverfordwest County AFC 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Haverfordwest County AFC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ammanford AFC 18%, draw 23%, Haverfordwest County AFC 60%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Ammanford AFC v Haverfordwest County AFCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Ammanford AFC win18%

Draw23%

Haverfordwest County AFC win60%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ammanford AFC

Haverfordwest County AFC

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

Last match: 24 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Haverfordwest County AFC	13	−11	10
14	Ammanford AFC	14	−31	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · haverfordwest county afc winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Haverfordwest County AFC a 60% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.8, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ammanford AFC v Haverfordwest County AFC~~0.87 – 1.84

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~14 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ammanford AFC win	18%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Haverfordwest County AFC win	60%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Ammanford AFC or draw	40%	–	–
Ammanford AFC clean sheet	17%	–	–
Haverfordwest County AFC clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.2 12.2 11.2 6.9 3.3 1 5.8 10.5 9.3 5.7 2.7 2 2.6 4.6 4.1 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ammanford AFC down, Haverfordwest County AFC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ammanford AFC at home: 0.83 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Haverfordwest County AFC away: 0.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Ammanford AFC, 1.84 for Haverfordwest County AFC. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AMM 1–1 HAV · HAV 2–0 AMM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Sept

AMMANFORD AFC

DLLWWL2–2 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–9

HAVERFORDWEST COUNTY AFC

WLLLLW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	14	+47	40
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	13	+21	31
3	Penybont	13	+14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	14	+24	29
5	Colwyn Bay	14	+7	26
6	Barry Town	13	+5	25
7	Airbus UK	14	+8	24
8	Cardiff MET	14	+8	22
9	Cambrian & Clydach	14	−13	18
10	Llandudno	13	−1	16
11	Briton Ferry	14	−12	12
12	Flint Town United	14	−11	11
13	Haverfordwest County AFC	13	−11	10
14	Ammanford AFC	14	−31	9
15	Trefelin	14	−25	6
16	Holywell	13	−30	2