Airbus UK v Caernarfon Town prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Airbus UKDrawCaernarfon Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Caernarfon Town 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Caernarfon Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Airbus UK 27%, draw 20%, Caernarfon Town 54%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Airbus UK v Caernarfon TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Airbus UK win27%

Draw20%

Caernarfon Town win54%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

VenueThe Airfield

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Airbus UK

Caernarfon Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Caernarfon Town	14	+24	29
7	Airbus UK	14	+8	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · caernarfon town winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Caernarfon Town a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–2.3, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Airbus UK v Caernarfon Town~~1.55 – 2.30

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 29~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Airbus UK win	27%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Caernarfon Town win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Airbus UK or draw	46%	–	–
Airbus UK clean sheet	11%	–	–
Caernarfon Town clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.3%

0123450 2.5 5.0 5.6 4.2 2.5 1 3.5 7.7 8.3 6.2 3.6 2 2.8 5.9 6.4 4.7 2.8 3 3.1 3.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Airbus UK down, Caernarfon Town across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,087 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Airbus UK at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Caernarfon Town away: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Airbus UK, 2.30 for Caernarfon Town. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CAE 4–0 AIR · AIR 0–2 CAE · AIR 0–3 CAE · CAE 3–1 AIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Sept

AIRBUS UK

LWLWWW0–3 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 3–2

CAERNARFON TOWN

DWDLWW1–1 · 9–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	14	+47	40
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	14	+23	34
3	Penybont	13	+14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	14	+24	29
5	Colwyn Bay	14	+7	26
6	Barry Town	14	+3	25
7	Airbus UK	14	+8	24
8	Cardiff MET	14	+8	22
9	Cambrian & Clydach	14	−13	18
10	Llandudno	14	−3	16
11	Haverfordwest County AFC	14	−9	13
12	Briton Ferry	14	−12	12
13	Flint Town United	14	−11	11
14	Ammanford AFC	14	−31	9
15	Trefelin	14	−25	6
16	Holywell	13	−30	2