Ynyshir Albions v Swansea University prediction · FAW Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ynyshir AlbionsDrawSwansea University

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Swansea University 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Swansea University are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ynyshir Albions 25%, draw 20%, Swansea University 55%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Ynyshir Albions v Swansea UniversityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Ynyshir Albions win25%

Draw20%

Swansea University win55%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouth · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ynyshir Albions

Swansea University

15Days since last match22

Last match: 16 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 9 Oct · FAW Championship

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · swansea university winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Swansea University a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ynyshir Albions v Swansea University~~1.35 – 2.16

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 16 v 21~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ynyshir Albions win	25%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Swansea University win	55%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Ynyshir Albions or draw	45%	–	–
Ynyshir Albions clean sheet	13%	–	–
Swansea University clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.8%

0123450 3.3 7.0 7.0 5.0 2.8 1 4.5 8.5 8.8 6.2 3.4 2 2.9 5.8 5.9 4.1 2.3 3 2.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ynyshir Albions down, Swansea University across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,557 FAW Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.3% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ynyshir Albions at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Swansea University away: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Ynyshir Albions, 2.16 for Swansea University. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~YNY 2–1 SWA · SWA 2–1 YNY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 21 Aug

YNYSHIR ALBIONS

WDDDWW1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 6–2

SWANSEA UNIVERSITY

WDWDWD5–1 · 4–4 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 5–5

The table

2026/27 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea University	9	+19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	11	+7	21
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	11	+2	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	11	+4	16
8	Carmarthen Town	11	−1	15
9	Afan Lido	12	−1	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	−5	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	−11	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10
14	Newport City	9	+3	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	−5	9
16	llanelli AFC	12	−27	2