Home › Football › FAW Championship › Ynyshir Albions v llanelli AFC

Ynyshir Albions v llanelli AFC

Ynyshir Albions

6–2Full time

llanelli AFC

FAW Championship · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Ynyshir Albions 6–2 llanelli AFC YNYSHIR ALBIONS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ynyshir Albions win~~41%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.527

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.205

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ynyshir Albions win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ynyshir Albions was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
1′KICK-OFF Ynyshir Albions v llanelli AFC
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Ynyshir Albions 1–0 llanelli AFC
17′J. Haig scores for Ynyshir Albions on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–20–12
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Ynyshir Albions win: 41% at kick-off, 68% now
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Ynyshir Albions 2–0 llanelli AFC · C. Morgan
45′Ynyshir Albions find the net on 41′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 41' Ynyshir Albions 3–0 llanelli AFC
45′HALF-TIME Ynyshir Albions 3–0 llanelli AFC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ynyshir Albions win: 41% at kick-off, 99% now
47′SECOND HALF Ynyshir Albions 3–0 llanelli AFC
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Ynyshir Albions 5–0 llanelli AFC
63′⚽ GOAL · 57' Ynyshir Albions 5–0 llanelli AFC · J. Haig
85′⚽ GOAL · 83' Ynyshir Albions 6–1 llanelli AFC
FTFULL TIME Ynyshir Albions 6–2 llanelli AFC
FTYnyshir Albions 6–2 llanelli AFC · Ynyshir Albions win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ynyshir Albions win41%

Draw25%

llanelli AFC win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ynyshir albions winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

41% The market63%

Us41%

~~Market~~63%

We make Ynyshir Albions a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ynyshir albions win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 64% to 63% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ynyshir Albions win	41%	63%	−22
Draw	25%	20%	+5
llanelli AFC win	34%	16%	+17
Over 2.5 goals	49%	61%	−12
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	82%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	28%	41%	−13
Ynyshir Albions or draw	66%	84%	−17
Ynyshir Albions clean sheet	30%	–	–
llanelli AFC clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.5 9.1 5.5 2.4 1 10.3 11.6 7.3 3.2 2 7.0 8.1 5.0 2.2 3 3.4 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ynyshir Albions down, llanelli AFC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,535 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ynyshir Albions at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). llanelli AFC away: 0.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Ynyshir Albions, 1.24 for llanelli AFC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~YNY 2–7 LLA · LLA 1–0 YNY

Form · last six in FAW Championship

YNYSHIR ALBIONS

LWDDDW1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

LLANELLI AFC

DLLLLL2–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	9	+19	21
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	11	+2	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
15	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
16	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
17	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
18	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
19	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
20	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
21	Rhyl	10	−2	10
22	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
23	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
24	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
25	Newport City	8	+3	8
26	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1