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Trethomas Bluebirds v Cardiff Draconians

Trethomas Bluebirds

3–1Full time

Cardiff Draconians

FAW Championship · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Trethomas Bluebirds 3–1 Cardiff Draconians TRETHOMAS BLUEBIRDS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trethomas Bluebirds win~~48%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.553

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trethomas Bluebirds win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Trethomas Bluebirds was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–20–31
1′KICK-OFF Trethomas Bluebirds v Cardiff Draconians
10′Trethomas Bluebirds find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–17–15
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Trethomas Bluebirds 1–0 Cardiff Draconians
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Trethomas Bluebirds win: 48% at kick-off, 69% now
10′GOAL DISALLOWED · 10' Trethomas Bluebirds
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Trethomas Bluebirds win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
11′We published Trethomas Bluebirds at 48%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–17–15
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Trethomas Bluebirds 1–0 Cardiff Draconians
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Trethomas Bluebirds win: 48% at kick-off, 69% now
15′Trethomas Bluebirds ahead on 11′ through N. Ferreira. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–17–14
17′A goal for Trethomas Bluebirds on 16′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 86–9–5
17′We published Trethomas Bluebirds at 48%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–0 · 86–9–5
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Trethomas Bluebirds 2–0 Cardiff Draconians
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Trethomas Bluebirds win: 48% at kick-off, 86% now
28′Cardiff Draconians score on 28′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 70–18–12
28′We published Trethomas Bluebirds at 48%. Our model now makes it 70%. 2–1 · 70–18–12
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Trethomas Bluebirds 2–1 Cardiff Draconians
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Trethomas Bluebirds win: 48% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME Trethomas Bluebirds 2–1 Cardiff Draconians
46′SECOND HALF Trethomas Bluebirds 2–1 Cardiff Draconians
57′Trethomas Bluebirds find the net on 57′. 3–1. 3–1 · 93–6–1
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Trethomas Bluebirds 3–1 Cardiff Draconians
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Trethomas Bluebirds win: 48% at kick-off, 93% now
58′We published Trethomas Bluebirds at 48%. Our model now makes it 93%. 3–1 · 93–5–1
59′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 94–5–1
61′Trethomas Bluebirds ahead on 58′ through B. Taylor. 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
63′We published Trethomas Bluebirds at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–1 · 95–5–1
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Trethomas Bluebirds win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
85′We published Trethomas Bluebirds at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Trethomas Bluebirds 3–1 Cardiff Draconians
FTTrethomas Bluebirds 3–1 Cardiff Draconians · Trethomas Bluebirds win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trethomas Bluebirds are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trethomas Bluebirds 48%, draw 20%, Cardiff Draconians 32%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Trethomas Bluebirds v Cardiff DraconiansBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Trethomas Bluebirds win48%

Draw20%

Cardiff Draconians win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundSouth · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trethomas Bluebirds

Cardiff Draconians

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Trethomas Bluebirds	10	+2	13
13	Cardiff Draconians	8	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trethomas bluebirds winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market40%

Us48%

~~Market~~40%

We make Trethomas Bluebirds a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trethomas Bluebirds v Cardiff Draconians~~2.13 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~8 v 13

~~The market · Trethomas Bluebirds win~~40% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trethomas Bluebirds win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trethomas Bluebirds win	48%	40%	+8
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Cardiff Draconians win	32%	36%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	72%	65%	+7
Both teams to score	70%	67%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	82%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	52%	44%	+8
Trethomas Bluebirds or draw	68%	64%	+4
Trethomas Bluebirds clean sheet	20%	–	–
Cardiff Draconians clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.4 4.2 3.3 1 5.1 7.9 6.5 3.7 2 5.1 8.1 6.6 3.7 3 3.5 5.6 4.6 2.6 4 3.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trethomas Bluebirds down, Cardiff Draconians across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,547 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.0% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trethomas Bluebirds at home: 2.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cardiff Draconians away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for Trethomas Bluebirds, 1.68 for Cardiff Draconians. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TRE 4–4 CAR · CAR 3–0 TRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 15 Aug

TRETHOMAS BLUEBIRDS

WWDDLW5–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–1

CARDIFF DRACONIANS

LWWLDD1–4 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea University	9	+19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	10	+7	20
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	10	+4	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
7	Carmarthen Town	10	+1	15
8	Trethomas Bluebirds	10	+2	13
9	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13
10	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
11	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
12	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10
13	Cardiff Draconians	8	−3	9
14	Newport City	8	+3	8
15	Llantwit Major	9	−13	8
16	llanelli AFC	11	−24	2