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Treowen Stars v Trethomas Bluebirds

Treowen Stars

1–3Full time

Trethomas Bluebirds

FAW Championship · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Treowen Stars 1–3 Trethomas Bluebirds TREOWEN STARS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Treowen Stars win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.692

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Treowen Stars win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Treowen Stars v Trethomas Bluebirds
2′Little has changed for our model: Treowen Stars 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–20–33
36′⚽ GOAL · 33' Treowen Stars 0–1 Trethomas Bluebirds · N. Ferreira
39′N. Ferreira scores for Trethomas Bluebirds on 37′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 7–12–81
39′⚽ GOAL · 37' Treowen Stars 0–2 Trethomas Bluebirds · N. Ferreira
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Treowen Stars win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Trethomas Bluebirds win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Treowen Stars win 7%)
45′HALF-TIME Treowen Stars 0–2 Trethomas Bluebirds
46′SECOND HALF Treowen Stars 0–2 Trethomas Bluebirds
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Treowen Stars 1–2 Trethomas Bluebirds
79′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Treowen Stars
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Treowen Stars 1–3 Trethomas Bluebirds
FTFULL TIME Treowen Stars 1–3 Trethomas Bluebirds
FTTreowen Stars 1–3 Trethomas Bluebirds · Treowen Stars win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Treowen Stars win47%

Draw19%

Trethomas Bluebirds win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · treowen stars winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Treowen Stars a 47% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–2.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Treowen Stars win	47%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Trethomas Bluebirds win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	76%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	–	–
Treowen Stars or draw	66%	–	–
Treowen Stars clean sheet	15%	–	–
Trethomas Bluebirds clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.1%

0123450 3.1 2.8 1 3.6 6.2 6.0 3.9 2 3.8 7.1 6.7 4.4 2.2 3 2.9 5.4 5.1 3.3 4 3.2 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Treowen Stars down, Trethomas Bluebirds across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,535 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Treowen Stars at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Trethomas Bluebirds away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.34 goals for Treowen Stars, 1.98 for Trethomas Bluebirds. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TRE 2–0 TRE · TRE 1–1 TRE

Form · last six in FAW Championship

TREOWEN STARS

WLWDLL4–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–6 · 1–2

TRETHOMAS BLUEBIRDS

LWWDDL1–2 · 5–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	9	+19	21
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	11	+2	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
15	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
16	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
17	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
18	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
19	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
20	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
21	Rhyl	10	−2	10
22	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
23	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
24	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
25	Newport City	8	+3	8
26	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1