Swansea University v Treowen Stars prediction · FAW Championship

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Swansea University are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Swansea University 73%, draw 13%, Treowen Stars 14%. Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Swansea University v Treowen StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Swansea University win73%

Draw13%

Treowen Stars win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundSouth · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Swansea University

Treowen Stars

15Days since last match14

Last match: 9 Oct · FAW Championship

Last match: 10 Oct · FAW Championship

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · swansea university winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

73% The market–

Us73%

We make Swansea University a 73% chance to win. The model expects 3.6–1.5, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Swansea University v Treowen Stars~~3.58 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 13~~1 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Swansea University win	73%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Treowen Stars win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	86%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	72%	–	–
Swansea University or draw	86%	–	–
Swansea University clean sheet	23%	–	–
Treowen Stars clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.5%

0123450 1 2.8 3.9 3.0 2 4.2 6.1 4.6 2.4 3 4.5 6.5 4.9 2.5 4 3.8 5.4 4.0 2.1 5 2.7 3.8 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Swansea University down, Treowen Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (82.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 FAW Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games this season, across 167 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Swansea University at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Treowen Stars away: 1.83 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.58 goals for Swansea University, 1.53 for Treowen Stars. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 21 Aug

SWANSEA UNIVERSITY

WDWDWD5–1 · 4–4 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 5–5

TREOWEN STARS

LWDLLL2–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–6 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea University	9	+19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	11	+7	21
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	11	+2	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	11	+4	16
8	Carmarthen Town	11	−1	15
9	Afan Lido	12	−1	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	−5	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	−11	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10
14	Newport City	9	+3	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	−5	9
16	llanelli AFC	12	−27	2