Swansea University v Carmarthen Town prediction · FAW Championship

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Swansea University are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Swansea University 63%, draw 16%, Carmarthen Town 21%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Swansea University v Carmarthen TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

Swansea University win63%

Draw16%

Carmarthen Town win21%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:30

RoundSouth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Swansea University

Carmarthen Town

19Days since last match11

Last match: 9 Oct · FAW Championship

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · swansea university winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Swansea University a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Swansea University v Carmarthen Town~~2.93 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 15~~1 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Swansea University win	63%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Carmarthen Town win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
Swansea University or draw	79%	–	–
Swansea University clean sheet	22%	–	–
Carmarthen Town clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.2%

0123450 2.4 1 3.9 5.6 4.4 2.3 2 4.9 7.2 5.5 2.9 3 4.4 6.4 4.9 2.6 4 3.1 4.5 3.5 5 2.8 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Swansea University down, Carmarthen Town across0–5 goals a side shown (89.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,547 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.0% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Swansea University at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Carmarthen Town away: 2.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.93 goals for Swansea University, 1.58 for Carmarthen Town. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SWA 0–5 CAR · CAR 5–0 SWA · SWA 0–1 CAR · CAR 2–0 SWA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 21 Aug

SWANSEA UNIVERSITY

WDWDWD5–1 · 4–4 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 5–5

CARMARTHEN TOWN

DLDWLD2–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea University	9	+19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	10	+7	20
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	10	+4	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
7	Carmarthen Town	10	+1	15
8	Trethomas Bluebirds	10	+2	13
9	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13
10	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
11	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
12	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10
13	Cardiff Draconians	8	−3	9
14	Newport City	8	+3	8
15	Llantwit Major	9	−13	8
16	llanelli AFC	11	−24	2