Home › Football › FAW Championship › Ruthin Town v Rhyl

Ruthin Town v Rhyl

Ruthin Town

1–1Full time

Rhyl

FAW Championship · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Ruthin Town 1–1 Rhyl RHYL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Rhyl win~~42%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.905

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.868

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rhyl win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rhyl was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 35–23–42
1′KICK-OFF Ruthin Town v Rhyl
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Ruthin Town 0–1 Rhyl
22′A goal for Rhyl on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–20–66
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Rhyl win: 42% at kick-off, 66% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 19' Ruthin Town 0–1 Rhyl · J. Jones
31′⚽ GOAL · 19' Ruthin Town 0–1 Rhyl · J. Jones
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Ruthin Town 1–1 Rhyl
45′HALF-TIME Ruthin Town 1–1 Rhyl
46′SECOND HALF Ruthin Town 1–1 Rhyl
62′⚽ GOAL · 20' Ruthin Town 1–1 Rhyl · J. Jones
62′⚽ GOAL · 32' Ruthin Town 1–1 Rhyl · E. Davies
90′🟥 RED CARD · 91' Rhyl
FTRuthin Town 1–1 Rhyl · Rhyl win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ruthin Town win36%

Draw22%

Rhyl win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rhyl winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

42% The market46%

Us42%

~~Market~~46%

We make Rhyl a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rhyl win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ruthin Town win	36%	30%	+6
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Rhyl win	42%	46%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	63%	61%	+2
Both teams to score	63%	63%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	40%	+1
Ruthin Town or draw	58%	54%	+4
Ruthin Town clean sheet	19%	–	–
Rhyl clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.0 6.9 5.6 3.2 1 6.4 9.8 8.3 4.7 2.1 2 4.7 7.7 6.4 3.6 3 2.5 4.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ruthin Town down, Rhyl across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,531 FAW Championship matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 146 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ruthin Town at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Rhyl away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Ruthin Town, 1.71 for Rhyl. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~RHY 3–2 RUT · RUT 0–0 RHY

Form · last six in FAW Championship

RUTHIN TOWN

LLLLWD0–4 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1

RHYL

LWDDLL1–3 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	8	+19	20
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	10	+3	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
15	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
16	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
17	Buckley Town	10	+5	12
18	Afan Lido	10	−4	11
19	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
20	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
21	Rhyl	9	−2	9
22	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
23	Newport City	7	+4	8
24	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
25	Caerphilly Athletic	9	−8	8
26	Ruthin Town	10	−11	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1