Porthmadog v Brickfield Rangers prediction · FAW Championship

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Porthmadog 0–1 Brickfield Rangers BRICKFIELD RANGERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brickfield Rangers win~~39%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.572

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.618

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brickfield Rangers win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Brickfield Rangers 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
1′KICK-OFF Porthmadog v Brickfield Rangers
41′Brickfield Rangers score on 41′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–69
41′37′: L. Wynne on the scoresheet for Brickfield Rangers, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–69
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Porthmadog 0–1 Brickfield Rangers
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Brickfield Rangers win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
42′We said Brickfield Rangers at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
42′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′HALF-TIME Porthmadog 0–1 Brickfield Rangers
46′SECOND HALF Porthmadog 0–1 Brickfield Rangers
58′We said Brickfield Rangers at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Brickfield Rangers win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
69′We said Brickfield Rangers at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
76′We said Brickfield Rangers at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Brickfield Rangers win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
82′We said Brickfield Rangers at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
88′We said Brickfield Rangers at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Brickfield Rangers win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Porthmadog 0–1 Brickfield Rangers
FTPorthmadog 0–1 Brickfield Rangers · Brickfield Rangers win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Brickfield Rangers just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Porthmadog 36%, draw 25%, Brickfield Rangers 39%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Porthmadog v Brickfield RangersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Porthmadog win36%

Draw25%

Brickfield Rangers win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundNorth · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Porthmadog

Brickfield Rangers

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brickfield rangers winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Brickfield Rangers a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Porthmadog v Brickfield Rangers~~1.32 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 27~~3 v 1

~~The market · Brickfield Rangers win~~36% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brickfield Rangers win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Porthmadog win	36%	39%	−3
Draw	25%	25%	0
Brickfield Rangers win	39%	36%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	57%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	60%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	36%	−7
Porthmadog or draw	61%	64%	−3
Porthmadog clean sheet	26%	–	–
Brickfield Rangers clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.2 9.6 6.4 3.0 1 9.2 11.6 8.0 3.7 2 5.9 7.7 5.3 2.5 3 2.7 3.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Porthmadog down, Brickfield Rangers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 FAW Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games this season, across 167 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Porthmadog at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Brickfield Rangers away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Porthmadog, 1.38 for Brickfield Rangers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug

PORTHMADOG

DLWWWW2–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

BRICKFIELD RANGERS

WWWWWL2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27 · North

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	11	+16	27
2	Newtown AFC	10	+15	23
3	Porthmadog	11	+7	23
4	Mold Alexandra	11	+14	21
5	Bala Town	11	+2	19
6	Caersws	10	+7	18
7	Bangor City 1876 FC	11	+6	18
8	Guilsfield	11	+2	16
9	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
10	Llanuwchllyn	11	−7	14
11	Rhyl	11	−2	11
12	Denbigh Town	11	−3	10
13	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
14	Holyhead Hotspur	10	−7	8
15	Gresford Athletic	10	−16	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	−29	1