Pontypridd Town v llanelli AFC prediction · FAW Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pontypridd TownDrawllanelli AFC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Pontypridd Town 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pontypridd Town are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pontypridd Town 65%, draw 16%, llanelli AFC 19%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Pontypridd Town v llanelli AFCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Pontypridd Town win65%

Draw16%

llanelli AFC win19%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:30

RoundSouth · matchday 13

VenueUSW Sports Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pontypridd Town

llanelli AFC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · FAW Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Pontypridd Town	11	+7	21
16	llanelli AFC	12	−27	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pontypridd town winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Pontypridd Town a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pontypridd Town v llanelli AFC~~2.86 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 21 v 2~~2 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pontypridd Town win	65%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
llanelli AFC win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	–	–
Pontypridd Town or draw	81%	–	–
Pontypridd Town clean sheet	26%	–	–
llanelli AFC clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.7%

0123450 2.6 1 4.6 6.0 4.3 2.1 2 5.7 7.7 5.4 2.6 3 5.1 6.8 4.7 2.2 4 3.7 4.8 3.2 5 2.3 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Pontypridd Town down, llanelli AFC across0–5 goals a side shown (90.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,557 FAW Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.3% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pontypridd Town at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). llanelli AFC away: 0.67 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.86 goals for Pontypridd Town, 1.39 for llanelli AFC. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PON 1–2 LLA · LLA 3–0 PON · LLA 1–4 PON · PON 4–1 LLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 4 Sept

PONTYPRIDD TOWN

LWLWDD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 4–4

LLANELLI AFC

LLLLLL0–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–6 · 0–3

The table

2026/27 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea University	9	+19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	11	+7	21
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	11	+2	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	11	+4	16
8	Carmarthen Town	11	−1	15
9	Afan Lido	12	−1	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	−5	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	−11	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10
14	Newport City	9	+3	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	−5	9
16	llanelli AFC	12	−27	2