Pontardawe Town v Ynyshir Albions prediction · FAW Championship

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Pontardawe Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pontardawe Town 46%, draw 23%, Ynyshir Albions 31%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Pontardawe Town v Ynyshir AlbionsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Pontardawe Town win46%

Draw23%

Ynyshir Albions win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundSouth · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pontardawe Town

Ynyshir Albions

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 16 Oct · Welsh Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
13	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pontardawe town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Pontardawe Town a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pontardawe Town v Ynyshir Albions~~1.72 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~13 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pontardawe Town win	46%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Ynyshir Albions win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Pontardawe Town or draw	69%	–	–
Pontardawe Town clean sheet	27%	–	–
Ynyshir Albions clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 5.0 6.7 4.4 2.0 1 8.3 10.3 7.0 3.2 2 6.8 8.7 5.9 2.7 3 3.9 5.1 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pontardawe Town down, Ynyshir Albions across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 FAW Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games this season, across 167 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pontardawe Town at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ynyshir Albions away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Pontardawe Town, 1.36 for Ynyshir Albions. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PON 3–0 YNY · YNY 0–2 PON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 21 Aug

PONTARDAWE TOWN

LLLWWD0–1 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 6–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

YNYSHIR ALBIONS

WDDDWW1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 6–2

The table

2026/27 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea University	9	+19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	11	+7	21
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	11	+2	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	11	+4	16
8	Carmarthen Town	11	−1	15
9	Afan Lido	12	−1	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	−5	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	−11	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10
14	Newport City	9	+3	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	−5	9
16	llanelli AFC	12	−27	2