Penrhyncoch v Mold Alexandra prediction · FAW Championship

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Mold Alexandra are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Penrhyncoch 21%, draw 20%, Mold Alexandra 59%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Penrhyncoch v Mold AlexandraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Penrhyncoch win21%

Draw20%

Mold Alexandra win59%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundNorth · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Penrhyncoch

Mold Alexandra

14Days since last match14

Last match: 10 Oct · FAW Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Mold Alexandra	11	+14	21
16	Penrhyncoch	11	−29	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mold alexandra winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

59% The market67%

Us59%

~~Market~~67%

We make Mold Alexandra a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Penrhyncoch v Mold Alexandra~~1.17 – 2.17

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 21~~16 v 4

~~The market · Mold Alexandra win~~67% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mold Alexandra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Penrhyncoch win	21%	14%	+7
Draw	20%	19%	+1
Mold Alexandra win	59%	67%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	64%	64%	0
Both teams to score	59%	56%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	44%	−2
Penrhyncoch or draw	41%	33%	+8
Penrhyncoch clean sheet	13%	–	–
Mold Alexandra clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.1%

0123450 3.8 8.0 8.2 5.9 3.4 1 4.7 8.8 9.1 6.4 3.6 2 2.7 5.3 5.3 3.7 2.0 3 2.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Penrhyncoch down, Mold Alexandra across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 FAW Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games this season, across 167 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.29 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Penrhyncoch at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mold Alexandra away: 3.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Penrhyncoch, 2.17 for Mold Alexandra. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.29

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~PEN 3–1 MOL · MOL 2–2 PEN · PEN 0–0 MOL · MOL 1–2 PEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug

PENRHYNCOCH

LLLLLL0–5 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–4

MOLD ALEXANDRA

WWDWLW2–1 · 5–1 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27 · North

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	11	+16	27
2	Newtown AFC	10	+15	23
3	Porthmadog	11	+7	23
4	Mold Alexandra	11	+14	21
5	Bala Town	11	+2	19
6	Caersws	10	+7	18
7	Bangor City 1876 FC	11	+6	18
8	Guilsfield	11	+2	16
9	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
10	Llanuwchllyn	11	−7	14
11	Rhyl	11	−2	11
12	Denbigh Town	11	−3	10
13	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
14	Holyhead Hotspur	10	−7	8
15	Gresford Athletic	10	−16	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	−29	1