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Newtown AFC v Bangor City 1876 FC

Newtown AFC

0–0Full time

Bangor City 1876 FC

FAW Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Latham Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Newtown AFC 0–0 Bangor City 1876 FC NEWTOWN AFC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newtown AFC win~~56%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.011

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.025

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Newtown AFC win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Newtown AFC was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–21–23
1′KICK-OFF Newtown AFC v Bangor City 1876 FC
21′🟥 RED CARD · 21' Bangor City 1876 FC
22′🟥 RED CARD · 21' J. Smith · Bangor City 1876 FC
41′A red card for Bangor City 1876 FC on 21′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 47–31–22
45′HALF-TIME Newtown AFC 0–0 Bangor City 1876 FC
47′SECOND HALF Newtown AFC 0–0 Bangor City 1876 FC
FTFULL TIME Newtown AFC 0–0 Bangor City 1876 FC
FTNewtown AFC 0–0 Bangor City 1876 FC · Newtown AFC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Newtown AFC win56%

Draw20%

Bangor City 1876 FC win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Latham Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · newtown afc winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

56% The market60%

Us56%

~~Market~~60%

We make Newtown AFC a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · newtown afc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newtown AFC win	56%	60%	−4
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Bangor City 1876 FC win	24%	20%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	66%	64%	+3
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	43%	+3
Newtown AFC or draw	76%	80%	−4
Newtown AFC clean sheet	28%	–	–
Bangor City 1876 FC clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.3 4.5 2.8 1 7.1 8.6 5.7 2.6 2 7.2 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 5.1 6.4 4.2 4 2.8 3.5 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newtown AFC down, Bangor City 1876 FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,535 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Newtown AFC at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bangor City 1876 FC away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Newtown AFC, 1.31 for Bangor City 1876 FC. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in FAW Championship

NEWTOWN AFC

WWWWLW4–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

BANGOR CITY 1876 FC

WLDWLL2–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 2–6 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	9	+19	21
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	11	+2	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
15	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
16	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
17	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
18	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
19	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
20	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
21	Rhyl	10	−2	10
22	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
23	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
24	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
25	Newport City	8	+3	8
26	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1