Home › Football › FAW Championship › Llanuwchllyn v Penrhyncoch

Llanuwchllyn v Penrhyncoch

Llanuwchllyn

4–1Full time

Penrhyncoch

FAW Championship · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Llanuwchllyn 4–1 Penrhyncoch LLANUWCHLLYN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Llanuwchllyn win~~51%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.356

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.324

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Llanuwchllyn win at 51%.
2′KICK-OFF Llanuwchllyn v Penrhyncoch
3′Little has changed for our model: Llanuwchllyn 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–22–27
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Llanuwchllyn 1–0 Penrhyncoch
19′Llanuwchllyn find the net on 16′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–16–11
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Llanuwchllyn win: 51% at kick-off, 73% now
39′Llanuwchllyn ahead on 17′ through H. Aldred. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
45′HALF-TIME Llanuwchllyn 1–0 Penrhyncoch
47′SECOND HALF Llanuwchllyn 1–0 Penrhyncoch
49′⚽ GOAL · 47' Llanuwchllyn 1–1 Penrhyncoch
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Llanuwchllyn 2–1 Penrhyncoch
76′⚽ GOAL · 71' Llanuwchllyn 3–1 Penrhyncoch · J. Davies
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Llanuwchllyn 4–1 Penrhyncoch
FTFULL TIME Llanuwchllyn 4–1 Penrhyncoch
FTLlanuwchllyn 4–1 Penrhyncoch · Llanuwchllyn win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Llanuwchllyn win51%

Draw21%

Penrhyncoch win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · llanuwchllyn winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

51% The market54%

Us51%

~~Market~~54%

We make Llanuwchllyn a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · llanuwchllyn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 54% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llanuwchllyn win	51%	54%	−2
Draw	21%	22%	−2
Penrhyncoch win	28%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	68%	66%	+2
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	45%	+1
Llanuwchllyn or draw	72%	76%	−4
Llanuwchllyn clean sheet	24%	–	–
Penrhyncoch clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 3.1 4.7 3.3 1 6.4 8.6 6.3 3.1 2 6.3 8.7 6.3 3.1 3 4.3 6.0 4.3 2.1 4 2.3 3.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llanuwchllyn down, Penrhyncoch across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,535 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Llanuwchllyn at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Penrhyncoch away: 0.33 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Llanuwchllyn, 1.46 for Penrhyncoch. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in FAW Championship

LLANUWCHLLYN

LWWDLL0–4 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–5 · 0–1

PENRHYNCOCH

LLLLLL0–4 · 0–5 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	9	+19	21
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	11	+2	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
15	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
16	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
17	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
18	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
19	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
20	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
21	Rhyl	10	−2	10
22	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
23	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
24	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
25	Newport City	8	+3	8
26	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1