Llanuwchllyn v Bala Town

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bala Town win at 41%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Bala Town 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 39–20–41
3. 1′KICK-OFF Llanuwchllyn v Bala Town
4. 7′Llanuwchllyn find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 59–18–22
5. 7′We said Bala Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 59–18–22
6. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Llanuwchllyn 1–0 Bala Town
7. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Bala Town win: 41% at kick-off, 22% now
8. 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Llanuwchllyn win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Bala Town win 41%)
9. 9′A goal for Bala Town on 9′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 38–21–40
10. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Llanuwchllyn 1–1 Bala Town
11. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Bala Town win: 41% at kick-off, 40% now
12. 31′Bala Town score on 31′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 17–20–64
13. 31′We said Bala Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 64%. 1–2 · 17–20–64
14. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Llanuwchllyn 1–2 Bala Town
15. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Bala Town win: 41% at kick-off, 64% now
16. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Bala Town win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Llanuwchllyn win 60%)
17. 32′28′: T. Jones on the scoresheet for Bala Town, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 16–20–64
18. 38′We said Bala Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–2 · 15–20–65
19. 45′HALF-TIME Llanuwchllyn 1–2 Bala Town
20. 46′SECOND HALF Llanuwchllyn 1–2 Bala Town
21. 56′Llanuwchllyn find the net on 56′. 2–2. 2–2 · 31–36–33
22. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Llanuwchllyn 2–2 Bala Town
23. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Bala Town win: 41% at kick-off, 33% now
24. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Bala Town win 68%)
25. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Bala Town win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
26. 64′We said Bala Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 28–42–29
27. 67′A goal for Bala Town on 67′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 6–21–73
28. 67′We said Bala Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 2–3 · 6–21–73
29. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Llanuwchllyn 2–3 Bala Town
30. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Bala Town win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
31. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Bala Town win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 44%)
32. 68′5 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 6–20–74
33. 69′Bala Town are down to ten from 69′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–3 · 6–20–74
34. 69′🟥 RED CARD · 69' Bala Town
35. 71′We said Bala Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 2–3 · 5–19–76
36. 76′We said Bala Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–3 · 3–17–80
37. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Bala Town win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
38. 81′We said Bala Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–3 · 2–14–85
39. 85′We said Bala Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–3 · 1–10–90
40. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Bala Town win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
41. 91′We said Bala Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
42. 92′Llanuwchllyn score on 90′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 4–91–4
43. 92′We said Bala Town at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 4–91–4
44. 92′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.1 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 4–91–4
45. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Llanuwchllyn 3–3 Bala Town
46. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Bala Town win: 41% at kick-off, 4% now
47. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Bala Town win 95%)
48. FTFULL TIME Llanuwchllyn 3–3 Bala Town
49. FTLlanuwchllyn 3–3 Bala Town · Bala Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.