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Llantwit Major v Pontardawe Town

Llantwit Major

1–1Full time

Pontardawe Town

FAW Championship · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Llantwit Major 1–1 Pontardawe Town LLANTWIT MAJOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Llantwit Major win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.927

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Llantwit Major win at 41%.
2′Much as we predicted: Llantwit Major was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–23–37
2′KICK-OFF Llantwit Major v Pontardawe Town
32′⚽ GOAL · 30' Llantwit Major 1–0 Pontardawe Town · T. M. Stokes
39′Pontardawe Town ahead on 38′ through J. Meacock. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–31–33
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Llantwit Major 1–1 Pontardawe Town
45′HALF-TIME Llantwit Major 1–1 Pontardawe Town
47′SECOND HALF Llantwit Major 1–1 Pontardawe Town
FTFULL TIME Llantwit Major 1–1 Pontardawe Town
FTLlantwit Major 1–1 Pontardawe Town · Llantwit Major win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Llantwit Major win41%

Draw21%

Pontardawe Town win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · llantwit major winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Llantwit Major a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llantwit Major win	41%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Pontardawe Town win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Llantwit Major or draw	63%	–	–
Llantwit Major clean sheet	20%	–	–
Pontardawe Town clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.3 5.6 4.4 2.5 1 6.0 8.9 7.4 4.2 2 5.1 8.0 6.5 3.7 3 3.1 4.8 3.9 2.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llantwit Major down, Pontardawe Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,535 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Llantwit Major at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Pontardawe Town away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Llantwit Major, 1.71 for Pontardawe Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LLA 0–0 PON · PON 3–2 LLA · LLA 4–1 PON · PON 0–3 LLA

Form · last six in FAW Championship

LLANTWIT MAJOR

LLDWWL0–1 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–4

PONTARDAWE TOWN

LLLLWW0–4 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 6–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	9	+19	21
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	11	+2	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
15	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
16	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
17	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
18	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
19	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
20	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
21	Rhyl	10	−2	10
22	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
23	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
24	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
25	Newport City	8	+3	8
26	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1