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Holyhead Hotspur v Caersws

Holyhead Hotspur

1–1Full time

Caersws

FAW Championship · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Holyhead Hotspur 1–1 Caersws CAERSWS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Caersws win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.905

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Caersws win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Holyhead Hotspur v Caersws
2′Much as we predicted: Caersws was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 34–23–42
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Holyhead Hotspur 0–1 Caersws
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Holyhead Hotspur 0–1 Caersws · G. Hughes
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Holyhead Hotspur 0–1 Caersws · G. Hughes
42′Holyhead Hotspur ahead on 37′ through J. L. Williams. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–34–36
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Holyhead Hotspur 1–1 Caersws
45′HALF-TIME Holyhead Hotspur 1–1 Caersws
48′SECOND HALF Holyhead Hotspur 1–1 Caersws
FTFULL TIME Holyhead Hotspur 1–1 Caersws
FTHolyhead Hotspur 1–1 Caersws · Caersws win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Holyhead Hotspur win35%

Draw22%

Caersws win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · caersws winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Caersws a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Holyhead Hotspur win	35%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Caersws win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Holyhead Hotspur or draw	58%	–	–
Holyhead Hotspur clean sheet	19%	–	–
Caersws clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.1 7.1 5.8 3.3 1 6.4 9.9 8.4 4.8 2.1 2 4.7 7.6 6.3 3.6 3 2.4 3.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Holyhead Hotspur down, Caersws across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,535 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Holyhead Hotspur at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Caersws away: 2.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Holyhead Hotspur, 1.71 for Caersws. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAE 2–2 HOL · HOL 1–1 CAE

Form · last six in FAW Championship

HOLYHEAD HOTSPUR

LDLLLW2–3 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 4–2

CAERSWS

WWWLWD3–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 5–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	9	+19	21
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	11	+2	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
15	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
16	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
17	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
18	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
19	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
20	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
21	Rhyl	10	−2	10
22	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
23	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
24	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
25	Newport City	8	+3	8
26	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1