Guilsfield v Porthmadog prediction · FAW Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GuilsfieldDrawPorthmadog

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Guilsfield 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guilsfield are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guilsfield 47%, draw 25%, Porthmadog 28%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Guilsfield v PorthmadogBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Guilsfield win47%

Draw25%

Porthmadog win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorth · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guilsfield

Porthmadog

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · FAW Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Porthmadog	12	+6	23
8	Guilsfield	12	+2	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guilsfield winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Guilsfield a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guilsfield v Porthmadog~~1.53 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 23~~8 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guilsfield win	47%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Porthmadog win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Guilsfield or draw	72%	–	–
Guilsfield clean sheet	33%	–	–
Porthmadog clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 7.5 8.2 4.5 1 11.0 11.5 6.5 2.5 2 8.1 8.8 5.0 3 4.2 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guilsfield down, Porthmadog across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,557 FAW Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.3% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guilsfield at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Porthmadog away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Guilsfield, 1.13 for Porthmadog. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GUI 4–0 POR · POR 0–1 GUI · GUI 4–0 POR · POR 1–2 GUI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 5 Sept

GUILSFIELD

LDWWLD0–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–2

PORTHMADOG

LWWWWL1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · North

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	12	+17	30
2	Newtown AFC	11	+15	24
3	Porthmadog	12	+6	23
4	Mold Alexandra	11	+14	21
5	Bala Town	12	+2	20
6	Caersws	11	+7	19
7	Bangor City 1876 FC	11	+6	18
8	Guilsfield	12	+2	17
9	Buckley Town	12	+4	15
10	Llanuwchllyn	12	−7	15
11	Rhyl	12	−2	12
12	Holyhead Hotspur	11	−5	11
13	Denbigh Town	11	−3	10
14	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
15	Gresford Athletic	10	−16	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	−29	1