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Gresford Athletic v Porthmadog

Gresford Athletic

0–1Full time

Porthmadog

FAW Championship · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Gresford Athletic 0–1 Porthmadog PORTHMADOG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Porthmadog win~~48%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.411

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.305

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Porthmadog win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Porthmadog was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 29–23–48
1′KICK-OFF Gresford Athletic v Porthmadog
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Gresford Athletic 0–1 Porthmadog · C. Whelan
41′Porthmadog ahead on 31′ through C. Whelan. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–19–73
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Porthmadog win: 48% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Gresford Athletic 0–1 Porthmadog
47′SECOND HALF Gresford Athletic 0–1 Porthmadog
FTFULL TIME Gresford Athletic 0–1 Porthmadog
FTGresford Athletic 0–1 Porthmadog · Porthmadog win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gresford Athletic win30%

Draw22%

Porthmadog win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · porthmadog winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

48% The market55%

Us48%

~~Market~~55%

We make Porthmadog a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · porthmadog win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gresford Athletic win	30%	23%	+7
Draw	22%	22%	0
Porthmadog win	48%	55%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	63%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	42%	−2
Gresford Athletic or draw	52%	45%	+7
Gresford Athletic clean sheet	17%	–	–
Porthmadog clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.2 7.7 6.7 4.1 1 5.9 9.7 8.8 5.4 2.6 2 4.0 6.8 6.1 3.7 3 3.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gresford Athletic down, Porthmadog across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,535 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gresford Athletic at home: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Porthmadog away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Gresford Athletic, 1.84 for Porthmadog. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~POR 0–1 GRE · GRE 2–3 POR · GRE 3–1 POR · POR 0–1 GRE

Form · last six in FAW Championship

GRESFORD ATHLETIC

LLLDWW0–3 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

PORTHMADOG

LDLWWW1–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	9	+19	21
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	11	+2	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
15	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
16	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
17	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
18	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
19	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
20	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
21	Rhyl	10	−2	10
22	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
23	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
24	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
25	Newport City	8	+3	8
26	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1