Denbigh Town v Gresford Athletic prediction · FAW Championship

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Denbigh Town are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Denbigh Town 64%, draw 17%, Gresford Athletic 20%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Denbigh Town v Gresford AthleticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

Denbigh Town win64%

Draw17%

Gresford Athletic win20%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundNorth · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Denbigh Town

Gresford Athletic

7Days since last match13

Last match: 16 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · FAW Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Denbigh Town	11	−3	10
15	Gresford Athletic	10	−16	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · denbigh town winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

64% The market65%

Us64%

~~Market~~65%

We make Denbigh Town a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Denbigh Town v Gresford Athletic~~2.71 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~12 v 15

~~The market · Denbigh Town win~~65% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Denbigh Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Denbigh Town win	64%	65%	−1
Draw	17%	19%	−2
Gresford Athletic win	20%	16%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	78%	70%	+8
Both teams to score	70%	63%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	91%	86%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	59%	50%	+9
Denbigh Town or draw	80%	84%	−4
Denbigh Town clean sheet	24%	–	–
Gresford Athletic clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.5 1 4.5 6.1 4.5 2.2 2 5.8 8.1 5.8 2.8 3 5.1 7.1 5.1 2.5 4 3.5 4.8 3.5 5 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Denbigh Town down, Gresford Athletic across0–5 goals a side shown (93.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,547 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.0% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 5.33 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Denbigh Town at home: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gresford Athletic away: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.71 goals for Denbigh Town, 1.45 for Gresford Athletic. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~5.33

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DEN 2–3 GRE · GRE 0–5 DEN · GRE 3–3 DEN · DEN 5–1 GRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug

DENBIGH TOWN

LLWLLW1–3 · 0–1 · 5–2 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 2–0

GRESFORD ATHLETIC

LLDWWL0–2 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · North

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	11	+16	27
2	Newtown AFC	10	+15	23
3	Porthmadog	11	+7	23
4	Mold Alexandra	11	+14	21
5	Bala Town	11	+2	19
6	Caersws	10	+7	18
7	Bangor City 1876 FC	11	+6	18
8	Guilsfield	11	+2	16
9	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
10	Llanuwchllyn	11	−7	14
11	Rhyl	11	−2	11
12	Denbigh Town	11	−3	10
13	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
14	Holyhead Hotspur	10	−7	8
15	Gresford Athletic	10	−16	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	−29	1