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Cardiff Draconians v Carmarthen Town

Cardiff Draconians

2–2Full time

Carmarthen Town

FAW Championship · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Cardiff Draconians 2–2 Carmarthen Town CARDIFF DRACONIANS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cardiff Draconians win~~41%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.938

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.859

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cardiff Draconians win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cardiff Draconians 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–22–38
1′KICK-OFF Cardiff Draconians v Carmarthen Town
12′🟥 RED CARD · 11' Carmarthen Town
17′Carmarthen Town are down to ten from 11′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 39–24–37
21′🟥 RED CARD · 21' Cardiff Draconians
33′⚽ GOAL · 31' Cardiff Draconians 0–1 Carmarthen Town · L. Reed
41′L. Reed scores for Carmarthen Town on 31′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–64
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Cardiff Draconians win: 41% at kick-off, 14% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Carmarthen Town win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Cardiff Draconians win 14%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 51' Cardiff Draconians 0–2 Carmarthen Town
45′HALF-TIME Cardiff Draconians 0–2 Carmarthen Town
47′SECOND HALF Cardiff Draconians 0–2 Carmarthen Town
67′⚽ GOAL · 65' Cardiff Draconians 1–2 Carmarthen Town
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Cardiff Draconians 2–2 Carmarthen Town
FTFULL TIME Cardiff Draconians 2–2 Carmarthen Town
FTCardiff Draconians 2–2 Carmarthen Town · Cardiff Draconians win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cardiff Draconians win41%

Draw21%

Carmarthen Town win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cardiff draconians winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

41% The market35%

Us41%

~~Market~~35%

We make Cardiff Draconians a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cardiff Draconians win	41%	35%	+6
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Carmarthen Town win	38%	41%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	70%	63%	+8
Both teams to score	69%	65%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	87%	83%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	50%	41%	+9
Cardiff Draconians or draw	62%	59%	+2
Cardiff Draconians clean sheet	17%	–	–
Carmarthen Town clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.7 5.0 4.2 2.5 1 5.1 8.3 7.4 4.5 2.1 2 4.5 7.6 6.7 4.0 3 2.8 4.7 4.2 2.5 4 2.3 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cardiff Draconians down, Carmarthen Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,535 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cardiff Draconians at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Carmarthen Town away: 2.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Cardiff Draconians, 1.83 for Carmarthen Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAR 2–3 CAR · CAR 2–1 CAR

Form · last six in FAW Championship

CARDIFF DRACONIANS

DLWWLD0–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

CARMARTHEN TOWN

LDLDWL2–4 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	9	+19	21
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	11	+2	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
15	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
16	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
17	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
18	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
19	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
20	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
21	Rhyl	10	−2	10
22	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
23	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
24	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
25	Newport City	8	+3	8
26	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1