Cardiff Draconians v Afan Lido prediction · FAW Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cardiff DraconiansDrawAfan Lido

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cardiff Draconians 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cardiff Draconians are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cardiff Draconians 47%, draw 21%, Afan Lido 32%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Cardiff Draconians v Afan LidoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Cardiff Draconians win47%

Draw21%

Afan Lido win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundSouth · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cardiff Draconians

Afan Lido

8Days since last match8

Last match: 23 Oct · FAW Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Afan Lido	12	−1	15
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	−5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cardiff draconians winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Cardiff Draconians a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cardiff Draconians v Afan Lido~~1.95 – 1.57

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 15~~15 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cardiff Draconians win	47%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Afan Lido win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Cardiff Draconians or draw	68%	–	–
Cardiff Draconians clean sheet	22%	–	–
Afan Lido clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.8%

0123450 3.1 5.0 3.7 1 6.2 8.8 6.9 3.6 2 5.7 8.5 6.5 3.4 3 3.7 5.5 4.2 2.2 4 2.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cardiff Draconians down, Afan Lido across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,557 FAW Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.3% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cardiff Draconians at home: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Afan Lido away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Cardiff Draconians, 1.57 for Afan Lido. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAR 4–1 AFA · AFA 1–3 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 22 Aug

CARDIFF DRACONIANS

WWLDDL4–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3

AFAN LIDO

LWDLDW1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 5–5 · 3–0

The table

2026/27 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea University	9	+19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	11	+7	21
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	11	+2	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	11	+4	16
8	Carmarthen Town	11	−1	15
9	Afan Lido	12	−1	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	−5	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	−11	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10
14	Newport City	9	+3	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	−5	9
16	llanelli AFC	12	−27	2