Caersws v Guilsfield prediction · FAW Championship

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Caersws 2–2 Guilsfield CAERSWS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Caersws win~~46%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.904

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.879

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Caersws win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Caersws was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–23–32
1′KICK-OFF Caersws v Guilsfield
31′Caersws score on 31′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–11
31′We published Caersws at 46%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 70–19–11
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Caersws 1–0 Guilsfield
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Caersws win: 46% at kick-off, 70% now
33′27′: C. Francis-Jones on the scoresheet for Caersws, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
45′HALF-TIME Caersws 1–0 Guilsfield
46′SECOND HALF Caersws 1–0 Guilsfield
55′We published Caersws at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Caersws win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
68′We published Caersws at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
75′Caersws find the net on 75′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
75′We published Caersws at 46%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Caersws 2–0 Guilsfield
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Caersws win: 46% at kick-off, 98% now
77′Caersws ahead on 73′ through A. Harries. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
84′We published Caersws at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′A goal for Guilsfield on 85′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 93–7–0
85′A red card for Guilsfield on 85′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 93–7–0
85′We published Caersws at 46%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
85′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Guilsfield
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Caersws 2–1 Guilsfield
FTFULL TIME Caersws 2–2 Guilsfield
FTCaersws 2–2 Guilsfield · Caersws win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Caersws are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Caersws 46%, draw 23%, Guilsfield 32%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Caersws v GuilsfieldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Caersws win46%

Draw23%

Guilsfield win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundNorth · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Caersws

Guilsfield

14Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · FAW Championship

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Caersws	10	+7	18
8	Guilsfield	11	+2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · caersws winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market46%

Us46%

~~Market~~46%

We make Caersws a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Caersws v Guilsfield~~1.74 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 16~~6 v 8

~~The market · Caersws win~~46% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Caersws win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Caersws win	46%	46%	0
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Guilsfield win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	62%	−2
Both teams to score	61%	64%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
Caersws or draw	68%	70%	−2
Caersws clean sheet	25%	–	–
Guilsfield clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.5 6.4 4.3 2.1 1 7.8 10.2 7.2 3.4 2 6.5 8.8 6.1 2.9 3 3.8 5.1 3.6 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Caersws down, Guilsfield across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 FAW Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games this season, across 167 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.14 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Caersws at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Guilsfield away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Caersws, 1.41 for Guilsfield. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.14

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~GUI 4–1 CAE · CAE 0–0 GUI · CAE 5–3 GUI · GUI 1–2 CAE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug

CAERSWS

WWLWDD2–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 5–2 · 3–3 · 1–1

GUILSFIELD

WLDWWL4–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · North

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	11	+16	27
2	Newtown AFC	10	+15	23
3	Porthmadog	11	+7	23
4	Mold Alexandra	11	+14	21
5	Bala Town	11	+2	19
6	Caersws	10	+7	18
7	Bangor City 1876 FC	11	+6	18
8	Guilsfield	11	+2	16
9	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
10	Llanuwchllyn	11	−7	14
11	Rhyl	11	−2	11
12	Denbigh Town	11	−3	10
13	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
14	Holyhead Hotspur	10	−7	8
15	Gresford Athletic	10	−16	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	−29	1