Caersws v Bangor City 1876 FC prediction · FAW Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CaerswsDrawBangor City 1876 FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Caersws 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Caersws are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Caersws 50%, draw 20%, Bangor City 1876 FC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Caersws v Bangor City 1876 FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Caersws win50%

Draw20%

Bangor City 1876 FC win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorth · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Caersws

Bangor City 1876 FC

7Days since last match15

Last match: 24 Oct · FAW Championship

Last match: 16 Oct · Welsh Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Caersws	11	+7	19
7	Bangor City 1876 FC	11	+6	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · caersws winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Caersws a 50% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Caersws v Bangor City 1876 FC~~2.15 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 18~~6 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Caersws win	50%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Bangor City 1876 FC win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Caersws or draw	70%	–	–
Caersws clean sheet	21%	–	–
Bangor City 1876 FC clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.5 4.2 3.2 1 5.4 7.9 6.3 3.4 2 5.5 8.3 6.5 3.5 3 3.9 5.9 4.6 2.5 4 2.1 3.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Caersws down, Bangor City 1876 FC across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,557 FAW Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.3% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Caersws at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bangor City 1876 FC away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Caersws, 1.61 for Bangor City 1876 FC. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~BAN 1–2 CAE · CAE 2–1 BAN · CAE 0–0 BAN · BAN 2–0 CAE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug

CAERSWS

WLWDDD3–0 · 0–2 · 5–2 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–2

BANGOR CITY 1876 FC

LDWLLD1–2 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 2–6 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27 · North

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	12	+17	30
2	Newtown AFC	11	+15	24
3	Porthmadog	12	+6	23
4	Mold Alexandra	11	+14	21
5	Bala Town	12	+2	20
6	Caersws	11	+7	19
7	Bangor City 1876 FC	11	+6	18
8	Guilsfield	12	+2	17
9	Buckley Town	12	+4	15
10	Llanuwchllyn	12	−7	15
11	Rhyl	12	−2	12
12	Holyhead Hotspur	11	−5	11
13	Denbigh Town	11	−3	10
14	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
15	Gresford Athletic	10	−16	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	−29	1