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Caerphilly Athletic v Newport City

Caerphilly Athletic

3–2Full time

Newport City

FAW Championship · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Caerphilly Athletic 3–2 Newport City NEWPORT CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newport City win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.621

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Newport City win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Newport City was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
1′KICK-OFF Caerphilly Athletic v Newport City
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Caerphilly Athletic 1–0 Newport City
13′A goal for Caerphilly Athletic on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–21–16
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Newport City win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Caerphilly Athletic win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Newport City win 16%)
19′F. Skiverton scores for Caerphilly Athletic on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–22–15
24′We said Newport City at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Caerphilly Athletic 2–0 Newport City
29′⚽ GOAL · 13' Caerphilly Athletic 2–0 Newport City · F. Skiverton
29′⚽ GOAL · 26' Caerphilly Athletic 2–0 Newport City · E. Humphries
32′⚽ GOAL · 13' Caerphilly Athletic 2–0 Newport City · F. Skiverton
32′⚽ GOAL · 26' Caerphilly Athletic 2–0 Newport City · E. Humphries
45′HALF-TIME Caerphilly Athletic 2–0 Newport City
46′SECOND HALF Caerphilly Athletic 2–0 Newport City
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Caerphilly Athletic 2–1 Newport City
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Caerphilly Athletic 2–2 Newport City
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Caerphilly Athletic 3–2 Newport City
FTCaerphilly Athletic 3–2 Newport City · Newport City win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Caerphilly Athletic win36%

Draw25%

Newport City win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · newport city winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Newport City a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Caerphilly Athletic win	36%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Newport City win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Caerphilly Athletic or draw	61%	–	–
Caerphilly Athletic clean sheet	26%	–	–
Newport City clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.9 9.6 6.4 3.0 1 9.2 11.5 8.1 3.8 2 5.8 7.7 5.3 2.5 3 2.7 3.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Caerphilly Athletic down, Newport City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,531 FAW Championship matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 146 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Caerphilly Athletic at home: 1.25 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Newport City away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Caerphilly Athletic, 1.39 for Newport City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in FAW Championship

CAERPHILLY ATHLETIC

WWDLLL2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–3

NEWPORT CITY

LWLLDD1–2 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	8	+19	20
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	10	+3	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
15	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
16	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
17	Buckley Town	10	+5	12
18	Afan Lido	10	−4	11
19	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
20	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
21	Rhyl	9	−2	9
22	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
23	Newport City	7	+4	8
24	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
25	Caerphilly Athletic	9	−8	8
26	Ruthin Town	10	−11	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1