Caerphilly Athletic v Caerau (Ely) prediction · FAW Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Caerphilly AthleticDrawCaerau (Ely)

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Caerau (Ely) 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Caerau (Ely) are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Caerphilly Athletic 32%, draw 21%, Caerau (Ely) 47%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Caerphilly Athletic v Caerau (Ely)Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Caerphilly Athletic win32%

Draw21%

Caerau (Ely) win47%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundSouth · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Caerphilly Athletic

Caerau (Ely)

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · FAW Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Caerau (Ely)	11	+2	19
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	−5	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · caerau (ely) winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Caerau (Ely) a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Caerphilly Athletic v Caerau (Ely)~~1.57 – 1.94

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 19~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Caerphilly Athletic win	32%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Caerau (Ely) win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Caerphilly Athletic or draw	53%	–	–
Caerphilly Athletic clean sheet	15%	–	–
Caerau (Ely) clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.2 6.2 5.7 3.7 1 5.1 8.9 8.4 5.4 2.7 2 3.8 6.9 6.5 4.1 2.1 3 2.0 3.7 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Caerphilly Athletic down, Caerau (Ely) across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,557 FAW Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.3% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Caerphilly Athletic at home: 1.60 scored, 1.60 conceded a game (last 5). Caerau (Ely) away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Caerphilly Athletic, 1.94 for Caerau (Ely). Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug

CAERPHILLY ATHLETIC

DLLLWW2–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 3–1

CAERAU (ELY)

WWWWWL3–2 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea University	9	+19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	11	+7	21
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	11	+2	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	11	+4	16
8	Carmarthen Town	11	−1	15
9	Afan Lido	12	−1	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	−5	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	−11	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10
14	Newport City	9	+3	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	−5	9
16	llanelli AFC	12	−27	2