Caerau (Ely) v Llantwit Major prediction · FAW Championship

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Caerau (Ely) 0–2 Llantwit Major CAERAU (ELY) WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Caerau (Ely) win~~66%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.151

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.345

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Caerau (Ely) win at 66%.
1′Much as we predicted: Caerau (Ely) was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–18–17
1′KICK-OFF Caerau (Ely) v Llantwit Major
29′Llantwit Major score on 29′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 33–25–42
29′We said Caerau (Ely) at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–25–42
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Caerau (Ely) 0–1 Llantwit Major
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Caerau (Ely) win: 66% at kick-off, 33% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Llantwit Major win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Caerau (Ely) win 59%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 0–1 · 33–25–42
37′We said Caerau (Ely) at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–27–44
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Caerau (Ely) win: 66% at kick-off, 26% now
45′HALF-TIME Caerau (Ely) 0–1 Llantwit Major
46′We said Caerau (Ely) at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
46′SECOND HALF Caerau (Ely) 0–1 Llantwit Major
54′We said Caerau (Ely) at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–52
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Caerau (Ely) win: 66% at kick-off, 16% now
62′We said Caerau (Ely) at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
70′We said Caerau (Ely) at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Caerau (Ely) win: 66% at kick-off, 6% now
75′Llantwit Major find the net on 75′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Caerau (Ely) 0–2 Llantwit Major
76′We said Caerau (Ely) at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
FTFULL TIME Caerau (Ely) 0–2 Llantwit Major
FTCaerau (Ely) 0–2 Llantwit Major · Caerau (Ely) win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Caerau (Ely) are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Caerau (Ely) 66%, draw 17%, Llantwit Major 17%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Caerau (Ely) v Llantwit MajorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Caerau (Ely) win66%

Draw17%

Llantwit Major win17%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundSouth · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Caerau (Ely)

Llantwit Major

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Caerau (Ely)	10	+4	19
15	Llantwit Major	9	−13	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · caerau (ely) winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

66% The market73%

Us66%

~~Market~~73%

We make Caerau (Ely) a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Caerau (Ely) v Llantwit Major~~2.49 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 22 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 8~~4 v 15

~~The market · Caerau (Ely) win~~73% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Caerau (Ely) win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Caerau (Ely) win	66%	73%	−7
Draw	17%	16%	+1
Llantwit Major win	17%	11%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Both teams to score	60%	55%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Caerau (Ely) or draw	83%	89%	−6
Caerau (Ely) clean sheet	33%	–	–
Llantwit Major clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.0 3.6 1 7.1 7.6 4.4 2 8.1 8.9 5.0 3 6.5 7.1 4.0 4 4.1 4.4 2.5 5 2.2 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Caerau (Ely) down, Llantwit Major across0–5 goals a side shown (94.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,547 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.0% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Caerau (Ely) at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Llantwit Major away: 1.17 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.49 goals for Caerau (Ely), 1.13 for Llantwit Major. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LLA 1–4 CAE · CAE 0–0 LLA · LLA 1–0 CAE · CAE 2–4 LLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 22 Aug

CAERAU (ELY)

LWWWWW1–3 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

LLANTWIT MAJOR

LDWWLD1–5 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea University	9	+19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	10	+7	20
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	10	+4	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
7	Carmarthen Town	10	+1	15
8	Trethomas Bluebirds	10	+2	13
9	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13
10	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
11	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
12	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10
13	Cardiff Draconians	8	−3	9
14	Newport City	8	+3	8
15	Llantwit Major	9	−13	8
16	llanelli AFC	11	−24	2