Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › FAW Championship › Buckley Town v Holyhead Hotspur

Back
Wales flag

Buckley Town v Holyhead Hotspur

Buckley Town
0–2Full time
Holyhead Hotspur

FAW Championship · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24
Buckley Town 0–2 Holyhead Hotspur BUCKLEY TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Buckley Town win49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.766

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Buckley Town win at 49%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Buckley Town 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–21–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Buckley Town v Holyhead Hotspur
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Buckley Town 0–0 Holyhead Hotspur
  5. 46′SECOND HALF Buckley Town 0–0 Holyhead Hotspur
  6. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Buckley Town win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
  7. 53′We said Buckley Town at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–37–26
  8. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–38–25
  9. 56′Holyhead Hotspur score on 55′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
  10. 56′We said Buckley Town at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
  11. 56′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 0–2 · 3–9–88
  12. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Buckley Town 0–2 Holyhead Hotspur
  13. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Buckley Town win: 49% at kick-off, 3% now
  14. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Holyhead Hotspur win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Buckley Town win 37%)
  15. 58′54′: C. Owen on the scoresheet for Holyhead Hotspur, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
  16. FTFULL TIME Buckley Town 0–2 Holyhead Hotspur
  17. FTBuckley Town 0–2 Holyhead Hotspur · Buckley Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Buckley Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Buckley Town 49%, draw 21%, Holyhead Hotspur 30%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Buckley Town v Holyhead HotspurBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Buckley Town win49%
Draw21%
Holyhead Hotspur win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundNorth · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Buckley Town

Holyhead Hotspur

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27 · North

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Buckley Town11+615
14Holyhead Hotspur10−78

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · buckley town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
49% The market–
Us49%

We make Buckley Town a 49% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Buckley Town v Holyhead Hotspur2.03 – 1.56
Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 AugW3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 15 v 89 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Buckley Town win49%––
Draw21%––
Holyhead Hotspur win30%––
Over 2.5 goals69%––
Both teams to score67%––
Over 1.5 goals86%––
Over 3.5 goals48%––
Buckley Town or draw70%––
Buckley Town clean sheet22%––
Holyhead Hotspur clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%
0123450 2.9 4.7 3.5 1 6.0 8.6 6.7 3.5 2 5.7 8.5 6.5 3.4 3 3.9 5.7 4.4 2.3 4 2.0 3.0 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Buckley Town down, Holyhead Hotspur across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.71
Over 2.56 of 7
Both scored5 of 7
Last meetingsHOL 5–1 BUC · BUC 5–5 HOL · HOL 0–4 BUC · BUC 2–2 HOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug

BUCKLEY TOWN

LWDWDW0–2 · 5–0 · 3–3 · 6–2 · 1–1 · 3–2

HOLYHEAD HOTSPUR

DLLLWD2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · North
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Brickfield Rangers11+1627
2Newtown AFC10+1523
3Porthmadog11+723
4Mold Alexandra11+1421
5Bala Town11+219
6Caersws10+718
7Bangor City 1876 FC11+618
8Guilsfield11+216
9Buckley Town11+615
10Llanuwchllyn11−714
11Rhyl11−211
12Denbigh Town11−310
13Ruthin Town11−119
14Holyhead Hotspur10−78
15Gresford Athletic10−167
16Penrhyncoch11−291

The competition's standings before kick-off.