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Brickfield Rangers v Mold Alexandra

Brickfield Rangers

0–4Full time

Mold Alexandra

FAW Championship · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Brickfield Rangers 0–4 Mold Alexandra BRICKFIELD RANGERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brickfield Rangers win~~49%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.817

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.832

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brickfield Rangers win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Brickfield Rangers 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
1′KICK-OFF Brickfield Rangers v Mold Alexandra
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Brickfield Rangers 0–1 Mold Alexandra
17′10′ and it is 0–1: M. McGoona on the scoresheet for Mold Alexandra. 0–1 · 23–24–54
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Brickfield Rangers win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Mold Alexandra win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Brickfield Rangers win 23%)
41′We said Brickfield Rangers at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–25–59
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Brickfield Rangers win: 49% at kick-off, 15% now
45′HALF-TIME Brickfield Rangers 0–1 Mold Alexandra
46′SECOND HALF Brickfield Rangers 0–1 Mold Alexandra
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Brickfield Rangers 0–2 Mold Alexandra
79′⚽ GOAL · 75' Brickfield Rangers 0–3 Mold Alexandra · O. Cordiner
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Brickfield Rangers 0–4 Mold Alexandra
FTFULL TIME Brickfield Rangers 0–4 Mold Alexandra
FTBrickfield Rangers 0–4 Mold Alexandra · Brickfield Rangers win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Brickfield Rangers win49%

Draw23%

Mold Alexandra win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brickfield rangers winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

49% The market49%

Us49%

~~Market~~49%

We make Brickfield Rangers a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · brickfield rangers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brickfield Rangers win	49%	49%	0
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Mold Alexandra win	28%	27%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	59%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	38%	−3
Brickfield Rangers or draw	72%	73%	−1
Brickfield Rangers clean sheet	30%	–	–
Mold Alexandra clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.2 6.6 4.0 1 9.1 10.5 6.6 2.8 2 7.6 9.1 5.6 2.4 3 4.5 5.3 3.3 4 2.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brickfield Rangers down, Mold Alexandra across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,535 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brickfield Rangers at home: 2.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mold Alexandra away: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Brickfield Rangers, 1.24 for Mold Alexandra. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MOL 2–1 BRI · BRI 0–1 MOL

Form · last six in FAW Championship

BRICKFIELD RANGERS

LWWWWW1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–2

MOLD ALEXANDRA

WWWDWL4–0 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	9	+19	21
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	11	+2	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
15	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
16	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
17	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
18	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
19	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
20	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
21	Rhyl	10	−2	10
22	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
23	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
24	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
25	Newport City	8	+3	8
26	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1