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Bala Town v Buckley Town

Bala Town

2–3Full time

Buckley Town

FAW Championship · FRI 9 OCT · Maes Tegid

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Bala Town 2–3 Buckley Town BALA TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bala Town win~~53%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.827

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.088

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bala Town win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bala Town 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–20–28
1′KICK-OFF Bala Town v Buckley Town
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Bala Town 0–1 Buckley Town
12′Buckley Town find the net on 11′. 0–1. 0–1 · 30–21–49
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Bala Town win: 53% at kick-off, 30% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Buckley Town win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Bala Town win 30%)
14′⚽ GOAL · 11' Bala Town 0–1 Buckley Town · B. Guest
16′We said Bala Town at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–21–50
17′⚽ GOAL · 11' Bala Town 0–1 Buckley Town · B. Guest
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Bala Town 0–3 Buckley Town
24′⚽ GOAL · 21' Bala Town 0–3 Buckley Town
25′21′ and it is 0–3: Buckley Town have scored. 0–3 · 4–7–88
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Bala Town win: 53% at kick-off, 4% now
31′34′ and it is 0–3: O. Abadaki on the scoresheet for Buckley Town. 0–3 · 3–7–90
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Bala Town win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
36′We said Bala Town at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–3 · 3–6–91
42′A. Johnson scores for Buckley Town on 33′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–80
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bala Town win: 53% at kick-off, 7% now
46′⚽ GOAL · 72' Bala Town 2–2 Buckley Town
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Bala Town 2–3 Buckley Town · R. White
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Bala Town 2–3 Buckley Town
FTBala Town 2–3 Buckley Town · Bala Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bala Town win53%

Draw19%

Buckley Town win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Maes Tegid

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bala town winPublished 9 Oct 20:02

53% The market61%

Us53%

~~Market~~61%

We make Bala Town a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bala town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 64% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bala Town win	53%	61%	−8
Draw	19%	21%	−2
Buckley Town win	28%	18%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	77%	68%	+9
Both teams to score	73%	63%	+10
Over 1.5 goals	91%	85%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	58%	48%	+10
Bala Town or draw	72%	82%	−10
Bala Town clean sheet	19%	–	–
Buckley Town clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 3.2 2.5 1 4.3 6.6 5.7 3.3 2 4.8 7.8 6.5 3.7 3 3.8 6.1 5.1 2.9 4 2.3 3.7 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bala Town down, Buckley Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,531 FAW Championship matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 146 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bala Town at home: 1.75 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Buckley Town away: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.40 goals for Bala Town, 1.73 for Buckley Town. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in FAW Championship

BALA TOWN

LWLWLD0–1 · 2–1 · 2–5 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 3–3

BUCKLEY TOWN

WLWDWD3–1 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 3–3 · 6–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	8	+19	20
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	10	+3	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
15	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
16	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
17	Buckley Town	10	+5	12
18	Afan Lido	10	−4	11
19	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
20	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
21	Rhyl	9	−2	9
22	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
23	Newport City	7	+4	8
24	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
25	Caerphilly Athletic	9	−8	8
26	Ruthin Town	10	−11	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1