Baglan Dragons v Treowen Stars prediction · FAW Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Baglan DragonsDrawTreowen Stars

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Baglan Dragons 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Baglan Dragons are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baglan Dragons 41%, draw 24%, Treowen Stars 36%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Baglan Dragons v Treowen StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Baglan Dragons win41%

Draw24%

Treowen Stars win36%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:30

RoundSouth · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baglan Dragons

Treowen Stars

13Days since last match20

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · FAW Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
11	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · baglan dragons winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Baglan Dragons a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baglan Dragons v Treowen Stars~~1.56 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 13~~5 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baglan Dragons win	41%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Treowen Stars win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Baglan Dragons or draw	64%	–	–
Baglan Dragons clean sheet	24%	–	–
Treowen Stars clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.2 7.5 5.2 2.6 1 8.0 10.7 7.8 3.8 2 6.0 8.4 6.0 2.9 3 3.2 4.4 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baglan Dragons down, Treowen Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 FAW Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games this season, across 167 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baglan Dragons at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Treowen Stars away: 1.83 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Baglan Dragons, 1.45 for Treowen Stars. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TRE 4–1 BAG · BAG 3–4 TRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 31 Aug

BAGLAN DRAGONS

LWLLWD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

TREOWEN STARS

LWDLLL2–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–6 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea University	9	+19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	11	+7	21
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	11	+2	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	11	+4	16
8	Carmarthen Town	11	−1	15
9	Afan Lido	12	−1	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	−5	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	−11	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10
14	Newport City	9	+3	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	−5	9
16	llanelli AFC	12	−27	2