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Baglan Dragons v Pontypridd Town

Baglan Dragons

1–1Full time

Pontypridd Town

FAW Championship · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Baglan Dragons 1–1 Pontypridd Town PONTYPRIDD TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Pontypridd Town win~~44%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.870

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.821

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pontypridd Town win at 44%.
2′Much as we predicted: Pontypridd Town was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 31–25–44
2′KICK-OFF Baglan Dragons v Pontypridd Town
45′HALF-TIME Baglan Dragons 0–0 Pontypridd Town
47′SECOND HALF Baglan Dragons 0–0 Pontypridd Town
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Baglan Dragons 0–1 Pontypridd Town
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Baglan Dragons 1–1 Pontypridd Town
FTFULL TIME Baglan Dragons 1–1 Pontypridd Town
FTBaglan Dragons 1–1 Pontypridd Town · Pontypridd Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Baglan Dragons win31%

Draw24%

Pontypridd Town win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pontypridd town winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

44% The market42%

Us44%

~~Market~~42%

We make Pontypridd Town a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pontypridd town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baglan Dragons win	31%	32%	0
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Pontypridd Town win	44%	42%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Baglan Dragons or draw	56%	58%	−2
Baglan Dragons clean sheet	22%	–	–
Pontypridd Town clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.2 9.7 7.2 3.8 1 7.9 11.2 8.7 4.5 2 4.8 7.2 5.4 2.8 3 2.1 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baglan Dragons down, Pontypridd Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,535 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baglan Dragons at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Pontypridd Town away: 2.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Baglan Dragons, 1.56 for Pontypridd Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PON 2–0 BAG · BAG 3–0 PON · PON 1–0 BAG · BAG 2–2 PON

Form · last six in FAW Championship

BAGLAN DRAGONS

WLWLLW3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

PONTYPRIDD TOWN

WDLWLW2–1 · 4–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	9	+19	21
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	11	+2	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
15	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
16	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
17	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
18	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
19	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
20	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
21	Rhyl	10	−2	10
22	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
23	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
24	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
25	Newport City	8	+3	8
26	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1