Baglan Dragons v Aberystwyth Town prediction · FAW Championship

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Aberystwyth Town are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baglan Dragons 28%, draw 27%, Aberystwyth Town 44%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Baglan Dragons v Aberystwyth TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Baglan Dragons win28%

Draw27%

Aberystwyth Town win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundSouth · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baglan Dragons

Aberystwyth Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aberystwyth town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

44% The market53%

Us44%

~~Market~~53%

We make Aberystwyth Town a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baglan Dragons v Aberystwyth Town~~0.98 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 19~~5 v 3

~~The market · Aberystwyth Town win~~53% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aberystwyth Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baglan Dragons win	28%	23%	+5
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Aberystwyth Town win	44%	53%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	40%	53%	−13
Both teams to score	44%	54%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	66%	76%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	20%	32%	−12
Baglan Dragons or draw	56%	47%	+9
Baglan Dragons clean sheet	28%	–	–
Aberystwyth Town clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.4 13.4 8.6 3.9 1 10.1 12.3 8.1 3.6 2 4.9 6.2 4.0 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baglan Dragons down, Aberystwyth Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 FAW Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games this season, across 167 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baglan Dragons at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Aberystwyth Town away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Baglan Dragons, 1.31 for Aberystwyth Town. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAG 0–1 ABE · ABE 2–1 BAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 28 Aug

BAGLAN DRAGONS

LWLLWD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

ABERYSTWYTH TOWN

WWWDWL1–0 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea University	9	+19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	11	+7	21
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	11	+2	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	11	+4	16
8	Carmarthen Town	11	−1	15
9	Afan Lido	12	−1	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	−5	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	−11	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10
14	Newport City	9	+3	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	−5	9
16	llanelli AFC	12	−27	2