Home › Football › FAW Championship › Afan Lido v Swansea University

Afan Lido v Swansea University

Afan Lido

5–5Full time

Swansea University

FAW Championship · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:00

Afan Lido 5–5 Swansea University SWANSEA UNIVERSITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Swansea University win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.066

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Swansea University win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Swansea University 60% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 19–20–61
1′KICK-OFF Afan Lido v Swansea University
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Afan Lido 1–0 Swansea University
12′Afan Lido find the net on 11′. 1–0. 1–0 · 41–24–35
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Swansea University win: 60% at kick-off, 35% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Afan Lido win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Swansea University win 35%)
16′Afan Lido ahead on 12′ through A. Giardelli. 1–0. 1–0 · 42–24–34
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Afan Lido 2–0 Swansea University
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Afan Lido 2–1 Swansea University
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Afan Lido 3–1 Swansea University
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Afan Lido 4–1 Swansea University
45′⚽ GOAL · 12' Afan Lido 4–2 Swansea University · A. Giardelli
45′⚽ GOAL · 22' Afan Lido 4–2 Swansea University · A. Giardelli
45′⚽ GOAL · 27' Afan Lido 4–2 Swansea University · B. Gibbings
45′⚽ GOAL · 31' Afan Lido 4–2 Swansea University · B. Roberts
45′⚽ GOAL · 35' Afan Lido 4–2 Swansea University · A. Giardelli
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Afan Lido 4–2 Swansea University
45′HALF-TIME Afan Lido 4–3 Swansea University
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Afan Lido 4–3 Swansea University
45′⚽ GOAL · 12' Afan Lido 4–3 Swansea University · A. Giardelli
45′⚽ GOAL · 22' Afan Lido 4–3 Swansea University · A. Giardelli
45′⚽ GOAL · 27' Afan Lido 4–3 Swansea University · B. Gibbings
45′⚽ GOAL · 31' Afan Lido 4–3 Swansea University · B. Roberts
45′⚽ GOAL · 35' Afan Lido 4–3 Swansea University · A. Giardelli
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Afan Lido 4–3 Swansea University · D. Ingram
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Afan Lido 4–3 Swansea University
46′SECOND HALF Afan Lido 4–3 Swansea University
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Afan Lido 4–4 Swansea University
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Afan Lido 4–5 Swansea University
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Afan Lido 5–5 Swansea University
FTAfan Lido 5–5 Swansea University · Swansea University win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Afan Lido win21%

Draw19%

Swansea University win60%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · swansea university winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Swansea University a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.3, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Afan Lido win	21%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Swansea University win	60%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Afan Lido or draw	40%	–	–
Afan Lido clean sheet	12%	–	–
Swansea University clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.8%

0123450 3.3 7.4 7.8 5.9 3.5 1 4.2 8.1 8.8 6.5 3.8 2 2.5 5.1 5.4 3.9 2.2 3 2.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Afan Lido down, Swansea University across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,531 FAW Championship matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 146 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Afan Lido at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Swansea University away: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Afan Lido, 2.28 for Swansea University. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SWA 1–3 AFA · AFA 7–1 SWA · SWA 2–0 AFA · AFA 0–3 SWA

Form · last six in FAW Championship

AFAN LIDO

LDLWDL2–5 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

SWANSEA UNIVERSITY

WWDWDW3–0 · 5–1 · 4–4 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	8	+19	20
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	10	+3	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
15	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
16	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
17	Buckley Town	10	+5	12
18	Afan Lido	10	−4	11
19	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
20	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
21	Rhyl	9	−2	9
22	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
23	Newport City	7	+4	8
24	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
25	Caerphilly Athletic	9	−8	8
26	Ruthin Town	10	−11	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1