Aberystwyth Town v Trethomas Bluebirds prediction · FAW Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Aberystwyth TownDrawTrethomas Bluebirds

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Aberystwyth Town 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aberystwyth Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aberystwyth Town 52%, draw 21%, Trethomas Bluebirds 26%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Aberystwyth Town v Trethomas BluebirdsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Aberystwyth Town win52%

Draw21%

Trethomas Bluebirds win26%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:30

RoundSouth · matchday 13

VenuePark Avenue

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aberystwyth Town

Trethomas Bluebirds

14Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 23 Oct · FAW Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	11	+4	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aberystwyth town winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Aberystwyth Town a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aberystwyth Town v Trethomas Bluebirds~~1.96 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 16~~3 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aberystwyth Town win	52%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Trethomas Bluebirds win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Aberystwyth Town or draw	74%	–	–
Aberystwyth Town clean sheet	28%	–	–
Trethomas Bluebirds clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.0 5.4 3.4 1 7.8 9.5 6.2 2.8 2 7.2 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 4.7 5.9 3.8 4 2.4 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aberystwyth Town down, Trethomas Bluebirds across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,557 FAW Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.3% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aberystwyth Town at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Trethomas Bluebirds away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Aberystwyth Town, 1.31 for Trethomas Bluebirds. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ABE 3–0 TRE · TRE 2–3 ABE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FAW Championship this season · since 28 Aug

ABERYSTWYTH TOWN

WWWDWL1–0 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1

TRETHOMAS BLUEBIRDS

WDDLWW3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea University	9	+19	21
2	Pontypridd Town	11	+7	21
3	Aberystwyth Town	9	+13	19
4	Caerau (Ely)	11	+2	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	0	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	+6	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	11	+4	16
8	Carmarthen Town	11	−1	15
9	Afan Lido	12	−1	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	−5	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	−2	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	−11	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	−2	10
14	Newport City	9	+3	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	−5	9
16	llanelli AFC	12	−27	2