Home › Football › FAW Championship › Aberystwyth Town v Caerau (Ely)

Aberystwyth Town v Caerau (Ely)

Aberystwyth Town

0–1Full time

Caerau (Ely)

FAW Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Park Avenue

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Aberystwyth Town 0–1 Caerau (Ely) ABERYSTWYTH TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aberystwyth Town win~~43%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.658

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.752

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aberystwyth Town win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Aberystwyth Town 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–34
1′KICK-OFF Aberystwyth Town v Caerau (Ely)
45′HALF-TIME Aberystwyth Town 0–0 Caerau (Ely)
46′SECOND HALF Aberystwyth Town 0–0 Caerau (Ely)
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Aberystwyth Town 0–1 Caerau (Ely) · G. Sheppard
FTFULL TIME Aberystwyth Town 0–1 Caerau (Ely)
FTAberystwyth Town 0–1 Caerau (Ely) · Aberystwyth Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Aberystwyth Town win43%

Draw22%

Caerau (Ely) win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Park Avenue

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aberystwyth town winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

43% The market44%

Us43%

~~Market~~44%

We make Aberystwyth Town a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aberystwyth town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aberystwyth Town win	43%	44%	−1
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Caerau (Ely) win	35%	30%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	63%	59%	+4
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	38%	+3
Aberystwyth Town or draw	65%	70%	−5
Aberystwyth Town clean sheet	22%	–	–
Caerau (Ely) clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.9 6.2 4.6 2.4 1 6.9 9.7 7.5 3.9 2 5.7 8.4 6.3 3.3 3 3.3 4.9 3.7 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aberystwyth Town down, Caerau (Ely) across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,535 FAW Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FAW Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aberystwyth Town at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Caerau (Ely) away: 2.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Aberystwyth Town, 1.55 for Caerau (Ely). Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ABE 0–4 CAE · CAE 1–0 ABE

Form · last six in FAW Championship

ABERYSTWYTH TOWN

WWWWDW5–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 3–1

CAERAU (ELY)

LLWWWW1–5 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	+20	27
2	Newtown AFC	9	+15	22
3	Swansea University	9	+19	21
4	Mold Alexandra	10	+11	20
5	Porthmadog	10	+6	20
6	Aberystwyth Town	8	+14	19
7	Pontypridd Town	9	+7	19
8	Bala Town	11	+2	19
9	Caersws	9	+7	17
10	Bangor City 1876 FC	10	+5	16
11	Guilsfield	10	+4	16
12	Caerau (Ely)	9	+3	16
13	Baglan Dragons	10	0	16
14	Buckley Town	11	+6	15
15	Carmarthen Town	9	+1	14
16	Ynyshir Albions	8	+2	13
17	Treowen Stars	9	0	13
18	Afan Lido	11	−4	12
19	Caerphilly Athletic	10	−7	11
20	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	0	10
21	Rhyl	10	−2	10
22	Llanuwchllyn	9	−10	10
23	Pontardawe Town	8	−2	9
24	Ruthin Town	11	−11	9
25	Newport City	8	+3	8
26	Cardiff Draconians	7	−3	8
27	Denbigh Town	10	−5	7
28	Holyhead Hotspur	9	−7	7
29	Llantwit Major	8	−13	7
30	Gresford Athletic	9	−15	7
31	llanelli AFC	10	−20	2
32	Penrhyncoch	10	−26	1