Văn Hiến v Dong Thap prediction · V.League 2

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 14:00

Văn Hiến 3–2 Dong Thap VĂN HIẾN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Văn Hiến win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.550

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Văn Hiến win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Văn Hiến 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–36–24
1′KICK-OFF Văn Hiến v Dong Thap
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Văn Hiến win 38%)
24′We said Văn Hiến at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–6
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Văn Hiến 1–0 Dong Thap
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Văn Hiến win: 40% at kick-off, 78% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Văn Hiến win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 42%)
25′Văn Hiến find the net on 24′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–6
29′A goal for Văn Hiến on 29′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Văn Hiến 2–0 Dong Thap
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Văn Hiến win: 40% at kick-off, 95% now
31′We said Văn Hiến at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Văn Hiến 2–0 Dong Thap
45′SECOND HALF Văn Hiến 2–0 Dong Thap
63′Dong Thap score on 62′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
63′We said Văn Hiến at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Văn Hiến 2–1 Dong Thap
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Văn Hiến win: 40% at kick-off, 85% now
64′We said Văn Hiến at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 2–2 · 21–65–14
64′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 21–65–14
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Văn Hiến 2–2 Dong Thap
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Văn Hiến win: 40% at kick-off, 21% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Văn Hiến win 86%)
65′Dong Thap find the net on 64′. 2–2. 2–2 · 21–65–14
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Văn Hiến win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
67′We said Văn Hiến at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–67–13
75′We said Văn Hiến at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–76–10
75′A goal for Văn Hiến on 75′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 90–9–1
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Văn Hiến 3–2 Dong Thap
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Văn Hiến win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Văn Hiến win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 76%)
76′We said Văn Hiến at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 3–2 · 91–9–1
77′5 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 91–8–0
90′3–2 at the end. Our 40% on Văn Hiến comes in. 3–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Văn Hiến 3–2 Dong Thap
FTVăn Hiến 3–2 Dong Thap · Văn Hiến win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Văn Hiến just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Văn Hiến 40%, draw 36%, Dong Thap 24%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Văn Hiến v Dong ThapBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Văn Hiến win40%

Draw36%

Dong Thap win24%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Văn Hiến

Dong Thap

5Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · V.League 2

Last match: 16 Oct · V.League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dong Thap	3	+1	6
8	Văn Hiến	3	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · văn hiến winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 18 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Văn Hiến a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Văn Hiến v Dong Thap~~1.02 – 0.73

~~Form · V.League 2 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~8 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Văn Hiến win

Published at 43%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Văn Hiến win	40%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
Dong Thap win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Văn Hiến or draw	76%	–	–
Văn Hiến clean sheet	49%	–	–
Dong Thap clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.0%

0123450 20.0 11.0 4.7 1 15.9 13.6 4.4 2 9.0 6.2 2.3 3 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Văn Hiến down, Dong Thap across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 595 V.League 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Văn Hiến at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dong Thap away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Văn Hiến, 0.73 for Dong Thap. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DON 1–0 VAN · VAN 1–0 DON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 2 this season · since 11 Sept

VĂN HIẾN

DWL0–0 · 1–0 · 0–3

DONG THAP

WLW2–0 · 0–3 · 3–1

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Thai Nguyen	3	+7	9
2	Hung Yen	3	+10	7
3	Sanna Khanh Hoa	3	+4	7
4	Binh Duong	3	+3	7
5	Dong Thap	3	+1	6
6	Than Quang Ninh	3	−1	4
7	Pho Hien	3	−2	4
8	Văn Hiến	3	−2	4
9	Lam Dong	3	0	3
10	Ho Chi Minh	3	−1	3
11	Long An	3	−2	1
12	Binh Dinh	3	−3	1
13	Bóng đá Huế	3	−5	1
14	Xuan Thien Phu Tho	3	−9	1