Than Quang Ninh v Xuan Thien Phu Tho prediction · V.League 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Than Quang Ninh 2–0 Xuan Thien Phu Tho THAN QUANG NINH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Than Quang Ninh win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.412

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Than Quang Ninh win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Than Quang Ninh was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Than Quang Ninh v Xuan Thien Phu Tho
45′HALF-TIME Than Quang Ninh 0–0 Xuan Thien Phu Tho
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Than Quang Ninh win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
46′SECOND HALF Than Quang Ninh 0–0 Xuan Thien Phu Tho
49′A goal for Than Quang Ninh on 49′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–6
49′We published Than Quang Ninh at 48%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–6
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Than Quang Ninh 1–0 Xuan Thien Phu Tho
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Than Quang Ninh win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Than Quang Ninh win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
62′We published Than Quang Ninh at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
74′We published Than Quang Ninh at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Than Quang Ninh win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
81′We published Than Quang Ninh at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
86′Than Quang Ninh score on 86′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Than Quang Ninh 2–0 Xuan Thien Phu Tho
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Than Quang Ninh win: 48% at kick-off, over 99% now
87′We published Than Quang Ninh at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Than Quang Ninh 2–0 Xuan Thien Phu Tho
FTThan Quang Ninh 2–0 Xuan Thien Phu Tho · Than Quang Ninh win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Than Quang Ninh are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Than Quang Ninh 48%, draw 26%, Xuan Thien Phu Tho 26%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Than Quang Ninh v Xuan Thien Phu ThoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Than Quang Ninh win48%

Draw26%

Xuan Thien Phu Tho win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Than Quang Ninh

Xuan Thien Phu Tho

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · V.League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Than Quang Ninh	2	−3	1
13	Xuan Thien Phu Tho	2	−7	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · than quang ninh winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Than Quang Ninh a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Than Quang Ninh v Xuan Thien Phu Tho~~1.78 – 1.26

~~Form · V.League 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~12 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Than Quang Ninh win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Xuan Thien Phu Tho win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Than Quang Ninh or draw	74%	–	–
Than Quang Ninh clean sheet	30%	–	–
Xuan Thien Phu Tho clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.4 5.0 3.9 1 7.6 11.7 6.3 2.7 2 7.6 8.6 5.2 2.3 3 4.4 5.1 3.1 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Than Quang Ninh down, Xuan Thien Phu Tho across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 589 V.League 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Than Quang Ninh at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Xuan Thien Phu Tho away: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Than Quang Ninh, 1.26 for Xuan Thien Phu Tho. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~THA 0–0 XUA · XUA 3–0 THA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 2 this season · since 12 Sept

THAN QUANG NINH

LD0–3 · 0–0

XUAN THIEN PHU THO

DL1–1 · 1–8

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hung Yen	2	+10	6
2	Thai Nguyen	2	+4	6
3	Dong Thap	3	+1	6
4	Sanna Khanh Hoa	2	+3	4
5	Binh Duong	2	+2	4
6	Văn Hiến	2	+1	4
7	Ho Chi Minh	2	0	3
8	Pho Hien	2	−2	3
9	Long An	2	−1	1
10	Bóng đá Huế	2	−2	1
11	Binh Dinh	3	−3	1
12	Than Quang Ninh	2	−3	1
13	Xuan Thien Phu Tho	2	−7	1
14	Lam Dong	2	−3	0