Sanna Khanh Hoa v Than Quang Ninh prediction · V.League 2

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 13:31

Sanna Khanh Hoa 1–1 Than Quang Ninh SANNA KHANH HOA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sanna Khanh Hoa win~~47%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.735

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.796

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sanna Khanh Hoa win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sanna Khanh Hoa 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–32–21
1′KICK-OFF Sanna Khanh Hoa v Than Quang Ninh
16′Sanna Khanh Hoa score on 15′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
16′We said Sanna Khanh Hoa at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Sanna Khanh Hoa 1–0 Than Quang Ninh
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Sanna Khanh Hoa win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
28′Than Quang Ninh find the net on 28′. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–38–21
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Sanna Khanh Hoa 1–1 Than Quang Ninh
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Sanna Khanh Hoa win: 47% at kick-off, 41% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Sanna Khanh Hoa win 40%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Sanna Khanh Hoa win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Sanna Khanh Hoa 1–1 Than Quang Ninh
45′SECOND HALF Sanna Khanh Hoa 1–1 Than Quang Ninh
46′We said Sanna Khanh Hoa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–46–19
49′We said Sanna Khanh Hoa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–48–18
59′We said Sanna Khanh Hoa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–55–16
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Sanna Khanh Hoa win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
67′We said Sanna Khanh Hoa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–14
68′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–1 · 23–64–13
73′We said Sanna Khanh Hoa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Sanna Khanh Hoa win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
79′We said Sanna Khanh Hoa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–8
83′We said Sanna Khanh Hoa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–5
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Sanna Khanh Hoa win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
90′We said Sanna Khanh Hoa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Sanna Khanh Hoa 1–1 Than Quang Ninh
FTSanna Khanh Hoa 1–1 Than Quang Ninh · Sanna Khanh Hoa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sanna Khanh Hoa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sanna Khanh Hoa 47%, draw 32%, Than Quang Ninh 21%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Sanna Khanh Hoa v Than Quang NinhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sanna Khanh Hoa win47%

Draw32%

Than Quang Ninh win21%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sanna Khanh Hoa

Than Quang Ninh

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · V.League 2

Last match: 17 Oct · V.League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sanna Khanh Hoa	3	+4	7
8	Than Quang Ninh	3	−1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sanna khanh hoa winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

47% The market47%

Us47%

~~Market~~47%

We make Sanna Khanh Hoa a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sanna Khanh Hoa v Than Quang Ninh~~1.33 – 0.80

~~Form · V.League 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~3 v 8

~~The market · Sanna Khanh Hoa win~~47% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sanna Khanh Hoa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sanna Khanh Hoa win	47%	47%	0
Draw	32%	28%	+4
Than Quang Ninh win	21%	25%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	36%	46%	−10
Both teams to score	41%	50%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	63%	69%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	17%	27%	−10
Sanna Khanh Hoa or draw	79%	75%	+4
Sanna Khanh Hoa clean sheet	46%	–	–
Than Quang Ninh clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.5%

0123450 14.5 8.1 4.0 1 14.0 13.5 4.9 2 10.1 7.7 3.1 3 4.6 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sanna Khanh Hoa down, Than Quang Ninh across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 597 V.League 2 matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sanna Khanh Hoa at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Than Quang Ninh away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Sanna Khanh Hoa, 0.80 for Than Quang Ninh. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–1 THA · THA 0–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 2 this season · since 12 Sept

SANNA KHANH HOA

DWW1–1 · 4–1 · 1–0

THAN QUANG NINH

LDW0–3 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Thai Nguyen	3	+7	9
2	Hung Yen	3	+10	7
3	Sanna Khanh Hoa	3	+4	7
4	Binh Duong	3	+3	7
5	Pho Hien	4	−1	7
6	Văn Hiến	4	−1	7
7	Dong Thap	4	0	6
8	Than Quang Ninh	3	−1	4
9	Lam Dong	3	0	3
10	Ho Chi Minh	3	−1	3
11	Long An	3	−2	1
12	Binh Dinh	3	−3	1
13	Bóng đá Huế	3	−5	1
14	Xuan Thien Phu Tho	4	−10	1