Ho Chi Minh v Binh Dinh prediction · V.League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ho Chi MinhDrawBinh Dinh

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ho Chi Minh 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ho Chi Minh are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ho Chi Minh 49%, draw 26%, Binh Dinh 25%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Ho Chi Minh v Binh DinhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ho Chi Minh win49%

Draw26%

Binh Dinh win25%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ho Chi Minh

Binh Dinh

4Days since last match5

Last match: 24 Oct · V.League 2

Last match: 23 Oct · V.League 2

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Binh Dinh	4	+1	4
10	Ho Chi Minh	4	−1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ho chi minh winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Ho Chi Minh a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ho Chi Minh v Binh Dinh~~1.78 – 1.18

~~Form · V.League 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ho Chi Minh win

Published at 54%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ho Chi Minh win	49%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Binh Dinh win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Ho Chi Minh or draw	75%	–	–
Ho Chi Minh clean sheet	32%	–	–
Binh Dinh clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.7 5.0 3.8 1 8.1 11.9 6.1 2.5 2 8.1 8.9 5.1 2.1 3 4.8 5.2 3.0 4 2.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ho Chi Minh down, Binh Dinh across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 600 V.League 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ho Chi Minh at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Binh Dinh away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Ho Chi Minh, 1.18 for Binh Dinh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HOC 3–0 BIN · BIN 3–1 HOC · HOC 1–0 BIN · BIN 1–2 HOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 2 this season · since 12 Sept

HO CHI MINH

WLLD1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

BINH DINH

LDLW1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Thai Nguyen	4	+8	12
2	Hung Yen	4	+12	10
3	Sanna Khanh Hoa	4	+4	8
4	Binh Duong	4	+2	7
5	Pho Hien	4	−1	7
6	Văn Hiến	4	−1	7
7	Dong Thap	4	0	6
8	Than Quang Ninh	4	−1	5
9	Binh Dinh	4	+1	4
10	Ho Chi Minh	4	−1	4
11	Lam Dong	4	−4	3
12	Bóng đá Huế	4	−5	2
13	Long An	4	−4	1
14	Xuan Thien Phu Tho	4	−10	1