Binh Duong v Than Quang Ninh prediction · V.League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Binh DuongDrawThan Quang Ninh

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Binh Duong 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Binh Duong are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Binh Duong 52%, draw 28%, Than Quang Ninh 20%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Binh Duong v Than Quang NinhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Binh Duong win52%

Draw28%

Than Quang Ninh win20%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Binh Duong

Than Quang Ninh

4Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · V.League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Binh Duong	4	+2	7
8	Than Quang Ninh	4	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · binh duong winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Binh Duong a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Binh Duong v Than Quang Ninh~~1.62 – 0.89

~~Form · V.League 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Binh Duong win

Published at 54%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Binh Duong win	52%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Than Quang Ninh win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Binh Duong or draw	80%	–	–
Binh Duong clean sheet	42%	–	–
Than Quang Ninh clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 10.6 5.9 3.4 1 11.6 12.7 5.0 2 10.3 8.8 4.0 3 5.7 4.8 2.2 4 2.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Binh Duong down, Than Quang Ninh across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 602 V.League 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Binh Duong at home: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Than Quang Ninh away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Binh Duong, 0.89 for Than Quang Ninh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~THA 1–0 BIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 2 this season · since 12 Sept

BINH DUONG

DWWL0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

THAN QUANG NINH

LDWD0–3 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Thai Nguyen	4	+8	12
2	Hung Yen	4	+12	10
3	Sanna Khanh Hoa	4	+4	8
4	Binh Duong	4	+2	7
5	Pho Hien	4	−1	7
6	Văn Hiến	4	−1	7
7	Dong Thap	4	0	6
8	Than Quang Ninh	4	−1	5
9	Binh Dinh	4	+1	4
10	Ho Chi Minh	4	−1	4
11	Lam Dong	4	−4	3
12	Bóng đá Huế	4	−5	2
13	Long An	4	−4	1
14	Xuan Thien Phu Tho	4	−10	1