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Binh Duong v Thai Nguyen

Binh Duong
2–3Full time
Thai Nguyen

V.League 2 · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01
Binh Duong 2–3 Thai Nguyen BINH DUONG WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Binh Duong win44%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.798
The market’s Brier score0.709

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Binh Duong win at 44%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Binh Duong was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Binh Duong v Thai Nguyen
  4. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Binh Duong win 37%)
  5. 45′SECOND HALF Binh Duong 0–0 Thai Nguyen
  6. 46′We published Binh Duong at 44%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
  7. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Binh Duong 1–0 Thai Nguyen
  8. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Binh Duong win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
  9. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Binh Duong win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 41%)
  10. 47′Binh Duong find the net on 47′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
  11. 47′HALF-TIME Binh Duong 0–0 Thai Nguyen
  12. 61′We published Binh Duong at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
  13. 71′We said Binh Duong at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–62–16
  14. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Binh Duong win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  15. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Binh Duong 1–1 Thai Nguyen
  16. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Binh Duong win: 44% at kick-off, 22% now
  17. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Binh Duong win 84%)
  18. 72′A goal for Thai Nguyen on 72′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 21–63–16
  19. 73′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 21–64–15
  20. 75′We said Binh Duong at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
  21. 78′We published Binh Duong at 44%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
  22. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Binh Duong 2–1 Thai Nguyen
  23. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Binh Duong win: 44% at kick-off, 88% now
  24. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Binh Duong win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 72%)
  25. 79′Binh Duong score on 78′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
  26. 79′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 89–10–1
  27. 79′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 15–74–11
  28. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Binh Duong 2–2 Thai Nguyen
  29. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Binh Duong win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
  30. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Binh Duong win 89%)
  31. 80′Thai Nguyen find the net on 80′. 2–2. 2–2 · 14–76–10
  32. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Binh Duong win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  33. 81′We said Binh Duong at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–78–9
  34. 84′We said Binh Duong at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–84–7
  35. 85′We said Binh Duong at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 2–3 · 0–8–92
  36. 85′A goal for Thai Nguyen on 85′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–8–92
  37. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Binh Duong 2–3 Thai Nguyen
  38. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Binh Duong win: 44% at kick-off, under 1% now
  39. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Thai Nguyen win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 84%)
  40. 86′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–7–92
  41. 95′Full time, 2–3. We called Binh Duong at 44% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–3 · 0–0–100
  42. FTFULL TIME Binh Duong 2–3 Thai Nguyen
  43. FTBinh Duong 2–3 Thai Nguyen · Binh Duong win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Binh Duong are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Binh Duong 44%, draw 28%, Thai Nguyen 28%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Binh Duong v Thai NguyenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Binh Duong win44%
Draw28%
Thai Nguyen win28%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Binh Duong

Thai Nguyen

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · V.League 2

Last match: 18 Oct · V.League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2027

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Thai Nguyen3+79
4Binh Duong3+37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · binh duong winFirst published 19 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
44% The market40%
Us44%
Market40%

We make Binh Duong a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Binh Duong v Thai Nguyen1.52 – 1.15
Form · V.League 2 this season · since 13 SeptW2 D1 L0 · W3 D0 L0
Table places · points 7 v 94 v 1
The market · Binh Duong win40% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 19 OCT 00:0123 OCT 11:45
Our probability · Binh Duong win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Binh Duong win44%40%+4
Draw28%28%0
Thai Nguyen win28%32%−4
Over 2.5 goals49%50%−1
Both teams to score53%56%−3
Over 1.5 goals75%73%+2
Over 3.5 goals28%31%−3
Binh Duong or draw72%68%+4
Binh Duong clean sheet33%––
Thai Nguyen clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%
0123450 9.2 6.6 4.7 1 9.1 13.1 6.6 2.6 2 7.9 8.6 4.9 3 4.1 4.4 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Binh Duong down, Thai Nguyen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2027

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2027.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 2 this season · since 13 Sept

BINH DUONG

DWW0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

THAI NGUYEN

WWW2–1 · 3–0 · 4–1

The table

2027
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Thai Nguyen3+79
2Hung Yen3+107
3Sanna Khanh Hoa3+47
4Binh Duong3+37
5Pho Hien4−17
6Văn Hiến4−17
7Dong Thap406
8Than Quang Ninh3−14
9Lam Dong303
10Ho Chi Minh3−13
11Long An3−21
12Binh Dinh3−31
13Bóng đá Huế3−51
14Xuan Thien Phu Tho4−101

The competition's standings before kick-off.