Thanh Hóa v Nam Dinh prediction · V.League 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Thanh Hóa 0–2 Nam Dinh NAM DINH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nam Dinh win~~41%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.521

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.406

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nam Dinh win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nam Dinh 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 32–27–41
1′KICK-OFF Thanh Hóa v Nam Dinh
11′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Nam Dinh
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Nam Dinh win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Thanh Hóa 0–1 Nam Dinh
45′SECOND HALF Thanh Hóa 0–1 Nam Dinh
46′We said Nam Dinh at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 7–20–73
46′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 7–20–73
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Thanh Hóa 0–1 Nam Dinh
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Nam Dinh win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Nam Dinh win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 20%)
47′A goal for Nam Dinh on 45′. 0–0 · 27–41–33 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Thanh Hóa
53′We said Nam Dinh at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Nam Dinh
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Thanh Hóa
66′We said Nam Dinh at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Nam Dinh win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
75′We said Nam Dinh at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
81′We said Nam Dinh at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Nam Dinh win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
86′Nam Dinh find the net on 86′. 0–1 · 0–6–94
87′We said Nam Dinh at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Thanh Hóa 0–2 Nam Dinh · Pham Tuan Hai
FTFULL TIME Thanh Hóa 0–2 Nam Dinh
FTThanh Hóa 0–2 Nam Dinh · Nam Dinh win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nam Dinh are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Thanh Hóa 32%, draw 27%, Nam Dinh 41%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Thanh Hóa v Nam DinhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Thanh Hóa win32%

Draw27%

Nam Dinh win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 4

Line-ups

Thanh Hóa

Nam Dinh

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Thanh Hóa

Nam Dinh

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · V.League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Thanh Hóa	3	+1	6
6	Nam Dinh	3	+1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Thanh Hóa

Formation not confirmed

77 O. Abdurakhmanov

9 S. Guindo

35 D. Lovric

98 Matheus Martins

17 Nguyen Van Tung

25 Nguyen Thanh Diep

22 D. Thongkhamsavath

14 Truong Thanh Nam

58 M. Truong Duc

15 Trinh Van Loi

39 Doan Tuan Canh

Coach · –

Substitutes

10 · Le Van Thang

75 · V. H. Le

20 · V. T. Lai

7 · B. Nguyen

89 · Nguyen Trong Phu

90 · Nguyen Duc Tung

8 · Ngo Duc Hoang

21 · Tran Ngoc Quy

23 · T. Q. Vu

Nam Dinh

Formation not confirmed

6 A Mit

93 F. Eboa

98 Giap Tuan Duong

39 Lam Ti Phong

90 Pham Tuan Hai

20 T. Crawford

22 Tran Manh Quynh

26 Tran Nguyen Manh

27 N. S. Tran

72 Romulo

10 Caio Cesar

Coach · Viet Vu Hong

Substitutes

79 · V. T. Le

88 · Ly Cong Hoang Anh

77 · V. Nguyen Skyriotis

11 · Nguyen Tuan Anh

7 · Nguyen Phong Hong Duy

19 · Tran Van Dat

67 · Trinh Xuan Hoang

28 · To Van Vu

4 · T. D. Dam

Our number · nam dinh winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market48%

Us41%

~~Market~~48%

We make Nam Dinh a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Thanh Hóa v Nam Dinh~~1.25 – 1.44

~~Form · V.League 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 4~~4 v 6

~~The market · Nam Dinh win~~48% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nam Dinh win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thanh Hóa win	32%	25%	+7
Draw	27%	27%	0
Nam Dinh win	41%	48%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	50%	52%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	31%	−3
Thanh Hóa or draw	59%	52%	+7
Thanh Hóa clean sheet	24%	–	–
Nam Dinh clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.5 9.3 7.1 3.4 1 8.0 12.6 8.7 4.2 2 5.3 7.5 5.4 2.6 3 2.2 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thanh Hóa down, Nam Dinh across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 944 V.League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Thanh Hóa at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nam Dinh away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Thanh Hóa, 1.44 for Nam Dinh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NAM 1–0 THA · THA 2–2 NAM · NAM 2–1 THA · THA 1–1 NAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 1 this season · since 6 Sept

THANH HÓA

WLW3–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

NAM DINH

WLD4–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Công An Nhân Dân	3	+6	9
2	Phu Dong	3	+4	7
3	Song Lam Nghe An	3	+4	7
4	Thanh Hóa	3	+1	6
5	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	3	+1	6
6	Nam Dinh	3	+1	4
7	Ho Chi Minh	3	+1	4
8	Da Nang	3	−1	3
9	Viettel	3	−1	3
10	Bắc Ninh	3	−1	3
11	Hai Phong	3	−2	3
12	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	3	−3	3
13	Ha Noi	3	−4	3
14	Bình Phước	3	−6	0