Thanh Hóa v Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh prediction · V.League 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Thanh HóaDrawHồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Thanh Hóa 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Thanh Hóa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Thanh Hóa 41%, draw 31%, Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 28%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Thanh Hóa v Hồng Lĩnh Hà TĩnhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Thanh Hóa win41%

Draw31%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win28%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Thanh Hóa

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

8Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · V.League 1

Last match: 24 Oct · V.League 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	5	+2	10
7	Thanh Hóa	5	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · thanh hóa winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Thanh Hóa a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Thanh Hóa v Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh~~1.18 – 0.93

~~Form · V.League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thanh Hóa win	41%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Thanh Hóa or draw	72%	–	–
Thanh Hóa clean sheet	40%	–	–
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.9 10.7 5.3 1 13.7 13.7 6.1 2 8.4 7.7 3.6 3 3.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thanh Hóa down, Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 954 V.League 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Thanh Hóa at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Thanh Hóa, 0.93 for Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~THA 0–1 HON · HON 1–0 THA · HON 0–0 THA · THA 1–1 HON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

THANH HÓA

WLWLD3–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

HỒNG LĨNH HÀ TĨNH

LWWDW0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Song Lam Nghe An	5	+6	11
2	Nam Dinh	5	+7	10
3	Phu Dong	4	+5	10
4	Công An Nhân Dân	5	+5	10
5	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	5	+2	10
6	Ho Chi Minh	4	+2	7
7	Thanh Hóa	5	−1	7
8	Hai Phong	5	+1	6
9	Ha Noi	4	−3	6
10	Bắc Ninh	5	−1	5
11	Viettel	5	−2	4
12	Da Nang	4	−5	3
13	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	5	−6	3
14	Bình Phước	5	−10	1