Song Lam Nghe An v Ho Chi Minh prediction · V.League 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Song Lam Nghe An 1–1 Ho Chi Minh SONG LAM NGHE AN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Song Lam Nghe An win~~42%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.758

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.762

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Song Lam Nghe An win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Song Lam Nghe An v Ho Chi Minh
2′Little has changed for our model: Song Lam Nghe An 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–29–29
3′Little has changed for our model: Song Lam Nghe An 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–29
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Ho Chi Minh
28′⚽ GOAL · 29' Song Lam Nghe An 0–0 Ho Chi Minh
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Song Lam Nghe An 0–1 Ho Chi Minh
39′29′ and it is 0–1: Ho Chi Minh have scored. 0–1 · 11–24–65
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Song Lam Nghe An win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Ho Chi Minh win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Song Lam Nghe An win 11%)
40′29′ and it is 0–1: Ho Chi Minh have scored. 0–1 · 10–24–65
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Song Lam Nghe An win: 42% at kick-off, 40% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Song Lam Nghe An win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ho Chi Minh win 27%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Song Lam Nghe An win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Ho Chi Minh win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Song Lam Nghe An win 11%)
45′HALF-TIME Song Lam Nghe An 0–1 Ho Chi Minh
45′SECOND HALF Song Lam Nghe An 0–1 Ho Chi Minh
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Song Lam Nghe An win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Ho Chi Minh win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Song Lam Nghe An win 11%)
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Song Lam Nghe An win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Ho Chi Minh win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Song Lam Nghe An win 11%)
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Song Lam Nghe An 0–1 Ho Chi Minh
52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Ho Chi Minh
53′⚽ GOAL · 54' Song Lam Nghe An 0–1 Ho Chi Minh
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Song Lam Nghe An 1–1 Ho Chi Minh · Nguyen Tien Linh
56′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Leo Gomes · Ho Chi Minh
56′⚽ GOAL · 29' Song Lam Nghe An 1–1 Ho Chi Minh · Nguyen Tien Linh
56′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Ho Chi Minh
56′⚽ GOAL · 54' Song Lam Nghe An 1–1 Ho Chi Minh
71′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Song Lam Nghe An
FTFULL TIME Song Lam Nghe An 1–1 Ho Chi Minh
FTSong Lam Nghe An 1–1 Ho Chi Minh · Song Lam Nghe An win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Song Lam Nghe An win42%

Draw29%

Ho Chi Minh win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueVinh Stadium

Line-ups

Song Lam Nghe An

Ho Chi Minh

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Song Lam Nghe An

Ho Chi Minh

29Days since last match30

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027/28

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Song Lam Nghe An	2	+4	6
7	Ho Chi Minh	2	+1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Song Lam Nghe An

Formation not confirmed

1 Cao Van Binh

5 J. Onoja

12 T. D. Bui

15 N. H. Le

19 B. Q. Phan

20 Le Van Quy

32 Ho Khac Ngoc

55 V. K. Hoang

77 Luizao

83 Bruno Paraiba

87 A. Tran

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · B. N. Nguyen

6 · V. T. Phan

10 · P. Tran

16 · V. Nguyen Quang

21 · Phan Xuan Dai

22 · Ngo Van Bac

27 · V. L. Dang

29 · Q. T. Dang

33 · Jairo Rodrigues

Ho Chi Minh

Formation not confirmed

89 P. Le Giang

34 Le Quang Hung

5 Dinh Quang Kiet

13 Khong Minh Gia

27 Nguyen Nhat Minh

12 Leo Gomes

19 Q. C. Nguyen Thai

26 D. K. Ngo

33 L. Williams

7 M. Olaha

22 Nguyen Tien Linh

Coach · Gerard Albadalejo

Substitutes

32 · Phan Van Bieu

2 · L. M. Tran

28 · H. P. Tran

17 · Minh Trong Vo

8 · J. Narvaez

39 · Nguyen Duc Phu

10 · Aldair

11 · Nguyen Phi Hoang

58 · K. Yamga

Our number · song lam nghe an winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

42% The market36%

Us42%

~~Market~~36%

We make Song Lam Nghe An a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · song lam nghe an win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Song Lam Nghe An win	42%	36%	+6
Draw	29%	29%	+1
Ho Chi Minh win	28%	35%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	39%	49%	−10
Both teams to score	45%	55%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	66%	73%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	19%	29%	−10
Song Lam Nghe An or draw	72%	65%	+7
Song Lam Nghe An clean sheet	37%	–	–
Ho Chi Minh clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.2 9.8 5.1 1 12.7 13.5 6.4 2.1 2 8.4 8.2 4.1 3 3.6 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Song Lam Nghe An down, Ho Chi Minh across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 942 V.League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.36 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Song Lam Nghe An at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ho Chi Minh away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Song Lam Nghe An, 0.99 for Ho Chi Minh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.36

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~5 of 11

~~Last meetings~~HOC 3–1 SON · SON 2–3 HOC · HOC 1–1 SON · SON 0–0 HOC

Form · last six in V.League 1

SONG LAM NGHE AN

LWLLWW1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 4–1

HO CHI MINH

DDDDWL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Công An Nhân Dân	3	+6	9
2	Phu Dong	3	+4	7
3	Song Lam Nghe An	2	+4	6
4	Thanh Hóa	3	+1	6
5	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	3	+1	6
6	Nam Dinh	3	+1	4
7	Ho Chi Minh	2	+1	3
8	Bắc Ninh	2	0	3
9	Da Nang	3	−1	3
10	Viettel	3	−1	3
11	Hai Phong	3	−2	3
12	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	3	−3	3
13	Ha Noi	2	−5	0
14	Bình Phước	3	−6	0