Phu Dong v Ho Chi Minh prediction · V.League 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Phu DongDrawHo Chi Minh

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Phu Dong 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Phu Dong are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Phu Dong 60%, draw 22%, Ho Chi Minh 18%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Phu Dong v Ho Chi MinhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Phu Dong win60%

Draw22%

Ho Chi Minh win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueNinh Binh Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Phu Dong

Ho Chi Minh

7Days since last match1

Last match: 18 Oct · V.League 1

Last match: 24 Oct · V.League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Phu Dong	4	+5	10
6	Ho Chi Minh	4	+2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · phu dong winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 25 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Phu Dong a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Phu Dong v Ho Chi Minh~~1.97 – 0.97

~~Form · V.League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L0 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Phu Dong win

Published at 61%, 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Phu Dong win	60%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Ho Chi Minh win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Phu Dong or draw	82%	–	–
Phu Dong clean sheet	38%	–	–
Ho Chi Minh clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 6.0 4.8 2.5 1 10.1 10.5 4.9 2 10.2 9.7 4.7 3 6.7 6.4 3.1 4 3.3 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Phu Dong down, Ho Chi Minh across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 956 V.League 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Phu Dong at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ho Chi Minh away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Phu Dong, 0.97 for Ho Chi Minh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PHU 1–2 HOC · PHU 1–1 HOC · HOC 3–4 PHU · HOC 0–0 PHU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

PHU DONG

WWDW4–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–3

HO CHI MINH

WLDW3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Song Lam Nghe An	5	+6	11
2	Nam Dinh	5	+7	10
3	Phu Dong	4	+5	10
4	Công An Nhân Dân	5	+5	10
5	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	5	+2	10
6	Ho Chi Minh	4	+2	7
7	Thanh Hóa	5	−1	7
8	Hai Phong	5	+1	6
9	Ha Noi	4	−3	6
10	Bắc Ninh	5	−1	5
11	Viettel	5	−2	4
12	Da Nang	4	−5	3
13	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	5	−6	3
14	Bình Phước	5	−10	1