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Nam Dinh v Phu Dong

Nam Dinh

1–1Full time

Phu Dong

V.League 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Nam Dinh 1–1 Phu Dong NAM DINH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Nam Dinh win~~43%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.861

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nam Dinh win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nam Dinh was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
1′KICK-OFF Nam Dinh v Phu Dong
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Nam Dinh
45′HALF-TIME Nam Dinh 0–0 Phu Dong
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Phu Dong
47′SECOND HALF Nam Dinh 0–0 Phu Dong
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Nam Dinh 0–1 Phu Dong
66′Nguyen Hoang Duc scores for Phu Dong on 57′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–21–74
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Nam Dinh win: 43% at kick-off, 5% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Phu Dong win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Nam Dinh win 5%)
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Nam Dinh 1–1 Phu Dong
86′73′ and it is 1–1: Tran Manh Quynh on the scoresheet for Nam Dinh. 1–1 · 7–88–6
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Phu Dong win 6%)
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Nam Dinh
FTFULL TIME Nam Dinh 1–1 Phu Dong
FTNam Dinh 1–1 Phu Dong · Nam Dinh win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Nam Dinh win43%

Draw24%

Phu Dong win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Nam Dinh

Formation not confirmed

26 Tran Nguyen Manh

5 Dang Van Toi

10 Caio Cesar

19 Tran Van Dat

20 T. Crawford

27 N. S. Tran

28 To Van Vu

39 Lam Ti Phong

72 Romulo

90 Pham Tuan Hai

93 F. Eboa

Coach · Viet Vu Hong

Substitutes

4 · T. D. Dam

6 · A Mit

11 · Nguyen Tuan Anh

22 · Tran Manh Quynh

32 · D. H. Ngo

67 · Trinh Xuan Hoang

77 · V. Nguyen Skyriotis

79 · V. T. Le

88 · Ly Cong Hoang Anh

Phu Dong

Formation not confirmed

1 Dang Van Lam

2 Hoang Thai Binh

5 F. Friday

7 Nguyen Duc Chien

9 Lucao

16 Nguyen Le Phat

24 Nguyen Ngoc My

55 Romeu

66 T. A. Truong

96 L. Turci

99 Nguyen Quoc Viet

Coach · Nghiem Chu Dinh

Substitutes

4 · Ho Tan Tai

6 · Do Thanh Thinh

81 · T. T. Doan

11 · Le Van Thuan

15 · Tran Bao Toan

17 · Le Ngoc Bao

18 · Pham Gia Hung

25 · T. T. Quang

28 · Nguyen Hoang Duc

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Nam Dinh

Formation not confirmed

26 Tran Nguyen Manh

5 Dang Van Toi

10 Caio Cesar

19 Tran Van Dat

20 T. Crawford

27 N. S. Tran

28 To Van Vu

39 Lam Ti Phong

72 Romulo

90 Pham Tuan Hai

93 F. Eboa

Coach · Viet Vu Hong

Substitutes

4 · T. D. Dam

6 · A Mit

11 · Nguyen Tuan Anh

22 · Tran Manh Quynh

32 · D. H. Ngo

67 · Trinh Xuan Hoang

77 · V. Nguyen Skyriotis

79 · V. T. Le

88 · Ly Cong Hoang Anh

Phu Dong

Formation not confirmed

1 Dang Van Lam

2 Hoang Thai Binh

5 F. Friday

7 Nguyen Duc Chien

9 Lucao

16 Nguyen Le Phat

24 Nguyen Ngoc My

55 Romeu

66 T. A. Truong

96 L. Turci

99 Nguyen Quoc Viet

Coach · Nghiem Chu Dinh

Substitutes

4 · Ho Tan Tai

6 · Do Thanh Thinh

81 · T. T. Doan

11 · Le Van Thuan

15 · Tran Bao Toan

17 · Le Ngoc Bao

18 · Pham Gia Hung

25 · T. T. Quang

28 · Nguyen Hoang Duc

Our number · nam dinh winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

43% The market30%

Us43%

~~Market~~30%

We make Nam Dinh a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nam dinh win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nam Dinh win	43%	30%	+12
Draw	24%	27%	−2
Phu Dong win	33%	43%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	59%	56%	+3
Both teams to score	61%	59%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	78%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	36%	+1
Nam Dinh or draw	67%	57%	+10
Nam Dinh clean sheet	24%	–	–
Phu Dong clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.2 6.2 4.7 2.3 1 7.3 11.1 7.6 3.6 2 6.3 8.8 6.2 3.0 3 3.5 4.9 3.5 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nam Dinh down, Phu Dong across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 939 V.League 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nam Dinh at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Phu Dong away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Nam Dinh, 1.43 for Phu Dong. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NAM 3–2 PHU · PHU 2–0 NAM

Form · last six in V.League 1

NAM DINH

LLWDWL0–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–3

PHU DONG

WDWWWW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Công An Nhân Dân	3	+6	9
2	Phu Dong	2	+4	6
3	Song Lam Nghe An	2	+4	6
4	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	3	+1	6
5	Da Nang	2	+2	3
6	Nam Dinh	2	+1	3
7	Ho Chi Minh	2	+1	3
8	Thanh Hóa	2	0	3
9	Bắc Ninh	2	0	3
10	Hai Phong	2	−1	3
11	Viettel	3	−1	3
12	Ha Noi	2	−5	0
13	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	2	−6	0
14	Bình Phước	3	−6	0