Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh v Hai Phong prediction · V.League 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2–1 Hai Phong HỒNG LĨNH HÀ TĨNH WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win~~35%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.634

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.557

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win at 35%.
1′KICK-OFF Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh v Hai Phong
2′Little has changed for our model: Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 35–30–35
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 0–0 Hai Phong
45′SECOND HALF Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 0–0 Hai Phong
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
56′A goal for Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh on 56′. 0–0 · 24–51–24
57′We said Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1–0 Hai Phong
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win: 35% at kick-off, 76% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 51%)
65′We said Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
71′Hai Phong find the net on 71′. 1–0 · 83–15–2
74′We said Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–1 · 15–70–15
74′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–1 · 15–70–15
74′⚽ GOAL · 71' Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1–1 Hai Phong
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win 84%)
75′We said Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–71–14
82′We said Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–9
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
89′We said Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
89′A goal for Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh on 89′. 1–1 · 4–92–4
90′We said Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–1 · 96–3–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2–1 Hai Phong
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win: 35% at kick-off, 96% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 93%)
91′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 97–3–0
FTFULL TIME Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2–1 Hai Phong
FTHồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2–1 Hai Phong · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 35%, draw 30%, Hai Phong 35%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh v Hai PhongBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win35%

Draw30%

Hai Phong win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

Hai Phong

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · V.League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	4	+1	7
8	Hai Phong	4	+2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hồng lĩnh hà tĩnh winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

35% The market39%

Us35%

~~Market~~39%

We make Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh v Hai Phong~~1.12 – 1.12

~~Form · V.League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~6 v 8

~~The market · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win~~39% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win	35%	39%	−4
Draw	30%	33%	−3
Hai Phong win	35%	28%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	39%	43%	−4
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	19%	25%	−6
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh or draw	65%	72%	−7
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh clean sheet	33%	–	–
Hai Phong clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 11.4 11.3 6.7 2.5 1 11.4 13.8 7.4 2.8 2 6.7 7.4 4.1 3 2.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh down, Hai Phong across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 954 V.League 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hai Phong away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh, 1.12 for Hai Phong. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HON 1–0 HAI · HAI 2–1 HON · HAI 1–0 HON · HON 1–1 HAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

HỒNG LĨNH HÀ TĨNH

LWWD0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2

HAI PHONG

LWLW1–4 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Song Lam Nghe An	5	+6	11
2	Phu Dong	4	+5	10
3	Công An Nhân Dân	5	+5	10
4	Nam Dinh	4	+3	7
5	Ho Chi Minh	4	+2	7
6	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	4	+1	7
7	Thanh Hóa	5	−1	7
8	Hai Phong	4	+2	6
9	Ha Noi	4	−3	6
10	Bắc Ninh	5	−1	5
11	Viettel	5	−2	4
12	Da Nang	4	−5	3
13	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	5	−6	3
14	Bình Phước	4	−6	1