Hoang Anh Gia Lai v Song Lam Nghe An prediction · V.League 1

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 13:31

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 0–2 Song Lam Nghe An HOANG ANH GIA LAI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hoang Anh Gia Lai win~~41%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.720

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.524

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hoang Anh Gia Lai win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hoang Anh Gia Lai 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
1′KICK-OFF Hoang Anh Gia Lai v Song Lam Nghe An
18′A goal for Song Lam Nghe An on 18′. 0–0 · 38–32–30
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Hoang Anh Gia Lai
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Hoang Anh Gia Lai win 36%)
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Hoang Anh Gia Lai
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Song Lam Nghe An
45′HALF-TIME Hoang Anh Gia Lai 0–0 Song Lam Nghe An
45′SECOND HALF Hoang Anh Gia Lai 0–0 Song Lam Nghe An
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Hoang Anh Gia Lai win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
54′We said Hoang Anh Gia Lai at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 32–42–26
58′A goal for Song Lam Nghe An on 58′. 0–0 · 27–50–22
59′We said Hoang Anh Gia Lai at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–21–73
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Hoang Anh Gia Lai 0–1 Song Lam Nghe An
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Hoang Anh Gia Lai win: 41% at kick-off, 6% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Song Lam Nghe An win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 51%)
64′We said Hoang Anh Gia Lai at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Song Lam Nghe An
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Hoang Anh Gia Lai win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
90′0–2 at the end. Our 41% on Hoang Anh Gia Lai misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′A goal for Song Lam Nghe An on 90′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Hoang Anh Gia Lai 0–2 Song Lam Nghe An
FTFULL TIME Hoang Anh Gia Lai 0–2 Song Lam Nghe An
FTHoang Anh Gia Lai 0–2 Song Lam Nghe An · Hoang Anh Gia Lai win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hoang Anh Gia Lai are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hoang Anh Gia Lai 41%, draw 28%, Song Lam Nghe An 31%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Hoang Anh Gia Lai v Song Lam Nghe AnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hoang Anh Gia Lai win41%

Draw28%

Song Lam Nghe An win31%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenuePleiku Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

Song Lam Nghe An

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · V.League 1

Last match: 17 Oct · V.League 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Song Lam Nghe An	4	+4	8
12	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	4	−4	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hoang anh gia lai winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:34 · locked at kick-off

41% The market31%

Us41%

~~Market~~31%

We make Hoang Anh Gia Lai a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hoang Anh Gia Lai v Song Lam Nghe An~~1.34 – 1.13

~~Form · V.League 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 8~~12 v 3

~~The market · Hoang Anh Gia Lai win~~31% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hoang Anh Gia Lai win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hoang Anh Gia Lai win	41%	31%	+10
Draw	28%	28%	0
Song Lam Nghe An win	31%	41%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−4
Hoang Anh Gia Lai or draw	69%	59%	+10
Hoang Anh Gia Lai clean sheet	33%	–	–
Song Lam Nghe An clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.2 9.0 5.4 2.1 1 10.8 13.2 7.2 2.7 2 7.6 8.4 4.8 3 3.4 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hoang Anh Gia Lai down, Song Lam Nghe An across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 952 V.League 1 matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hoang Anh Gia Lai at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Song Lam Nghe An away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Hoang Anh Gia Lai, 1.13 for Song Lam Nghe An. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SON 0–1 HOA · HOA 1–1 SON · SON 3–2 HOA · HOA 2–0 SON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 1 this season · since 6 Sept

HOANG ANH GIA LAI

LLWL0–4 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 3–4

SONG LAM NGHE AN

WWDD1–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Phu Dong	4	+5	10
2	Công An Nhân Dân	5	+5	10
3	Song Lam Nghe An	4	+4	8
4	Nam Dinh	4	+3	7
5	Ho Chi Minh	4	+2	7
6	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	4	+1	7
7	Thanh Hóa	5	−1	7
8	Hai Phong	4	+2	6
9	Ha Noi	4	−3	6
10	Bắc Ninh	4	−1	4
11	Viettel	4	−2	3
12	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	4	−4	3
13	Da Nang	4	−5	3
14	Bình Phước	4	−6	1